Politics in Kaduna: Saying the silent part out loud

Elections follow a process, and it goes without saying that politics is local. The road to 2027 is muddled with battles, mistakes, and agreements from previous years. And those predicting the voting patterns must first calculate the voters’ journey. Kaduna politics is a clear example of this truth.

The 2023 elections provide strong evidence. Kaduna gave the PDP presidential candidate the highest number of votes in the country for the second election in a row. The PDP also won all three senatorial seats and10 House of Representatives seats. Yet, three weeks later, in the gubernatorial election, about 1.5 million votes were split between two candidates, with the APC winning by a slim and disputed margin. The contest was between the APC’s Uba Sani and the PDP’s Isa Ashiru. These results point to a deep contradiction in voter behaviour.

To understand this contradiction, one must look beyond election results. Much has been said about this election, but little about local politics. Kaduna State is peculiar. One might think that understanding the constitutional structure of the state is sufficient—or that knowing the state has 23 local government councils, three senatorial zones, 16 House of Representatives constituencies, and 34 House of Assembly constituencies is enough. It is not. There is more beneath the surface.

Seasoned politicians will tell you that the politics of Zaria differs from that of Sabon-Gari, let alone Kubau, Ikara, or Lere. This is within a single senatorial zone. The same applies across the other zones. The politics of Giwa differ from those of Igabi and are far different from those of Chikun or Kaduna South. Local identity matters, not just party affiliations.

There is another way of understanding power, in Kaduna too. A politician was recently advised by two elders from one of the senatorial zones to rethink his assumptions if he wished to succeed.

Beyond institutions, informal understandings shape political expectations. One of the elders offered an analogy. He argued that Kaduna is structured like a pair of twins, a design he traced to the Babangida-era creation of Katsina State. He said, “Kaduna is structured like twins—Hassan and Hussaini.” He meant Christian and Muslim. He added that “Hassan alone has been feeding from the mother’s breast, while Hussaini continues to wait.” Clearly, this is an unhinged opinion. But the elders are no longer whispering. They are openly indoctrinating our politicians.

Personally, there is nothing inherently wrong with advocating for a Christian to become a governor, provided competence and good governance come first. The late Patrick Yakowa won his election without resorting to Muslim-versus-Christian rhetoric.

But if religious mobilisation is used, the effort will fail from the outset. Some argue that the APC relied on Muslim-Muslim messaging to secure re-election in 2019 and to bring Uba Sani to power in 2023. That claim has merit. Still, copying a strategy requires the same electoral base.

Senatorial Zone Three, with its eight local governments, has been electing Christian candidates since 1999 due to its demographics. This is similar to the other two zones, where Muslim candidates usually prevail. So, it is demographics, not messaging, that explains the outcome.

Religion cannot be the organising principle of a diverse state. If we take religion as the reason behind why anyone should be elected from each zone, then the prospect of a Christian governor in Kaduna should be abandoned entirely. An alliance between the two Muslim-majority zones would always guarantee victory. This is why religion should not be treated as the campaign strategy for a cosmopolitan state like Kaduna. That argument, however, appeals only to idealists. Besides, pragmatists will point to records showing that Muslim-Muslim messaging has worked twice in APC’s favour.

But if it is working, why is the governor changing a winning strategy? Because popularity is shallow. The question matters because the APC remains popular in only a handful of local governments that voted for it in 2023.

Zone One remains largely hostile to the APC, except in parts of Zaria. Its presence there depended on the Speaker of the House of Representatives and a serving minister. Even so, they needed a large national delegation to induce voters during the by-elections last August.

In the central zone, where the Governor and the Assembly Speaker hail from, Chikun is the key local government vocalising its alliances with the APC. It is surprising that voters who rejected the Muslim-Muslim ticket now seem willing to support them. In Senatorial Zone Three, voting patterns have also shifted. The APC is stronger than before, though the reasons remain unclear. Similar trends are observable across the middle-belt. One can interpret this as uncertainty. Where does this leave the opposition in Kaduna? The prevailing mood suggests that Kaduna voters want to be attracted by competence, not religious or regional appeals, much as they did in the 2023 presidential election.

Yet opposition parties must put their houses in order. First, the 2023 vote was a referendum on el-Rufai and his cabinet. Many now ask what message he could plausibly take to the electorate, given that his current fight with Uba Sani and Tinubu is personal, never about governance.

People understand this. He would be openly backing them had he been appointed a minister. He would also have done so had the Kaduna State Assembly not indicted him for alleged large-scale financial mismanagement and the diversion of state funds.

The good thing is that the opposition can grow through other politicians, not him alone.

Second, PDP figures such as Senator Makarfi and Hon. Isa Ashiru remain formidable forces in Kaduna. Yet the party’s national dysfunction is destabilising the local momentum, despite coming close to wiping out the APC in 2023. These leaders know they cannot make alliances with el-Rufai after fighting with him for the last 10 years. Any alliance will discredit them and make them look desperate for power.

Third, the opposition can sustain only one leader. If the el-Rufai movement insists on leading, the coalition of opposition will fail. The result would be a divided opposition, with parties such as the ADC and PDP fielding separate candidates.

The eventual outcome would mean the political parties will revert to religious polarisation and discount competence. The religious agitators will pit themselves.

A winner will emerge. But as citizens, we all lose.

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