Cooling Inflation and NBS Credibility Crisis

Obinna Chima, Editor, THISDAY Saturday

Obinna Chima

As Nigeria’s headline inflation figures continue to simmer down, public confidence in the country’s official statistics is being tested like never before. The focus of the debate is the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), whose numbers are now facing growing scrutiny over whether they accurately reflect lived economic realities or merely represent paper progress.

Price level is a crucial macroeconomic variable that influences households, firms, and government objectives. Its change also affects economic agents, economic growth, employment, trade balance, and other macroeconomic variables. Equally, statistics are essential in policymaking, as they enable policymakers to identify existing economic, social, or environmental issues that need to be addressed and guide them in fixing them.

They are also important for developing a better understanding of issues by analysing socio-economic trends over time. That is why the NBS must ensure that its numbers are reliable at all times.

But the NBS, which used to be viewed as a model of transparency and reliability, due to the credibility built by its successive leaders, is today faced with a credibility crisis, as a lot of data users now doubt its numbers.

At the core of the growing scepticism about the statistical body’s credibility are its CPI figures, which many Nigerians increasingly view as disconnected from everyday price pressures.

When the latest inflation numbers were released on Monday, I deliberately forwarded the news report to six prominent economists in the country and to a WhatsApp group of journalists covering the financial sector. The feedback reflected a widespread lack of confidence in the NBS numbers. Besides the CPI figures, in recent times, there have been reasons to also doubt certain data released by the bureau.

The latest NBS figures show that the CPI, which measures the rate of change in prices of goods and commodities, further dropped to 14.45 per cent in November, compared to 16.05 per cent in the preceding month, thereby falling in line with the 15 percent target set by President Bola Tinubu for 2025.

Year-on-year, however, the headline inflation rate stood at 20.15 per cent, compared to 34.60 per cent in November 2024. According to the CPI Report for November, month-on-month, headline inflation rate rose to 1.22 per cent, compared to 0.93 per cent in October. Food inflation stood at 11.08 per cent, year-on-year, in November 2025, from 39.93 per cent in November 2024.

However, month-on-month, the food index stood at 1.13 per cent, compared to -0.37 per cent in October. The increase was attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of tomatoes, cassava tuber, periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, melon, unshelled oxtail, onions, among others.

The “All items less farm produces and energy” or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 18.04 per cent year-on-year in November 2025, compared to 28.75 per cent in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the core index stood at 1.28 per cent from 1.42 per cent in October.

Month-on-month, urban inflation was 0.95 per cent, compared to 1.14 per cent in October. Similarly, rural inflation stood at 15.15 per cent, year-on-year, compared to 32.27 per cent in November 2024. However, month-on-month, the rural index inflation was 1.88 per cent, compared to 0.45 per cent in October. At the state level, headline inflation, year-on-year was highest in Rivers (17.78 per cent), Ogun (17.65 per cent), and Ekiti (16.77 per cent), while Plateau (9.13 per cent), Kebbi (10.32 per cent) and Katsina (10.60 per cent) recorded the lowest rise in prices.

While the NBS attributed the significant decline in inflation to the change in the base year, many data users have taken the explanation with a pinch of salt, viewing the figures as less a reflection of lived economic realities and more of an attempt by the agency to align its data with targets set by the government.

No doubt, the easing inflation numbers to a large extent are a reflection of the recent rebasing. The rebased CPI replaced the reference periods of 2009 with 2024 as the current Base Year, which, according to the statistical body, aligns the price and weight reference periods with the current economic environment and ensures methodological accuracy. It had also expanded the inflation basket from 740 to 960 items, with sectors such as digital services, energy, and imported foods, among others, now captured. The exercise also led to the adjustment of the CPI weights, with the food index allocated less weight, while service sectors such as hospitality were allocated more. This contributed significantly to the drop in headline inflation. But many observers remain sceptical, questioning whether the numbers truly reflect the everyday price pressures Nigerians face.

In an age where data drives decision-making, the integrity of that data becomes paramount.  Lack of credible data for proper problem definition, fact-based diagnoses, and practical solutions with measurable outcomes and meaningful impacts, pushes the country further away from its developmental aspirations. In addition, in a world where misinformation spreads rapidly and data manipulation is easier than ever, the integrity of official statistics is indispensable.

From the foregoing, the Adeyemi Adeniran-led NBS has to do a lot in regaining public confidence through continuous interpretation and enlightenment of the recalibration and change in methodology. Indeed, the consequences of compromised data can be severe. This is because decisions based on inaccurate or incomplete data can lead to ineffective or even harmful policies, resulting in wasted resources, misguided strategies, and a loss of public trust.

On the other hand, accurate data enables policymakers to understand the problems they are addressing, forecast future trends, and measure the impact of their policies. That is why the Adeniran-led NBS must strive to preserve the integrity of the NBS and embark on more enlightenment initiatives to regain the confidence of data users.