The knowledge monopoly: Why Nigeria’s agricultural resilience depends on owning innovation

For decades, Nigeria’s economic architects and leading entrepreneurs have operated under a seductive but dangerous fallacy: that innovation is an external commodity. The prevailing logic suggests that the tools for progress, technological, biological, or systemic, can simply be imported, adapted at the margins, or outsourced to global partners. We extract profits from protected markets while leaving the foundational work of productivity, Research and Development (R&D), underfunded and undervalued.

This approach may satisfy short-term quarterly returns, but it has left our national food security structurally exposed. We are trying to solve 21st-century Nigerian problems, climate volatility, soil-specific nutrient depletion, and evolving tropical pest dynamics, using a 20th-century “import-and-apply” mindset. In the current global climate, owning innovation is no longer an academic luxury; it is the bedrock of national stability.

The R&D cushion: More than just fertiliser

The urgency of this shift is not merely anecdotal. A recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper provides a sobering analytical lens through which we must view our cereal yields. The study confirms what many farmers know intuitively: climate variability, particularly unpredictable rainfall and temperature spikes, directly depresses long-term output.

However, the most striking takeaway from the IMF data is the stabilising power of R&D. Countries that invest meaningfully in agricultural research, measured by both funding and researcher density, are significantly better equipped to cushion the impact of climate shocks. Interestingly, the study suggests that conventional interventions like expanded irrigation or increased fertiliser use, while vital, do not offer the same consistent “shock-absorbing” effect as a robust R&D ecosystem.

This challenges the core of Nigerian agricultural policy. R&D is not an abstract indulgence; it is an organised, sustained investment in actionable knowledge. It is the difference between a farmer discovering a pest after his crop is gone and a surveillance system that predicts the outbreak weeks in advance.

The N2 billion warning shot

Consider the recent sugarcane pest infestations in Kano State. The devastation led to estimated losses of over N2 billion. These losses were not an “Act of God”; they were the cost of a research gap. Had there been locally generated surveillance and refined agronomic practices tailored to that specific ecological zone, the outbreak could have been mitigated.

“By internalising R&D, building local research capacity, partnering with domestic universities, and investing in localised data experimentation, firms create proprietary insights that strengthen their own margins while securing the wider economy.”

Agriculture accounts for roughly 21 percent of Nigeria’s GDP and remains our largest employer. NEPAD has long recommended that African nations invest at least 1 percent of their agricultural GDP annually in R&D. For Nigeria, this translates to a range between N395 billion and N904 billion ($279–$637 million). While these figures may seem daunting, they are modest when compared to the macroeconomic devastation caused by food inflation, which currently acts as a persistent tax on the poor and a drag on our national growth.

The case for a strategic monopoly

Beyond mere stabilisation, local R&D offers Nigeria a rare competitive advantage. Our geography and soil chemistry create production conditions that are fundamentally different from those in the American Midwest or the Brazilian Cerrado.

Imported technologies often underperform because they were not “born” in our ecological reality. Conversely, locally generated knowledge constitutes a strategic monopoly. It is an asset that cannot be outsourced, easily replicated by competitors, or held hostage by global supply chain disruptions. It is the only way to transition from reactive crisis management to what I call “anticipatory economic governance.”

Internalising innovation

To build this ecosystem, we must move beyond the “funding only” conversation. We need radical institutional reform. Our public research institutes must be transformed from bureaucratic silos into high-performance innovation hubs. Extension systems must be digitised to translate scientific outputs into practical, field-level guidance for smallholders.

Most importantly, the private sector must rethink its role. Relying on imported innovation is a form of strategic laziness. By internalising R&D, building local research capacity, partnering with domestic universities, and investing in localised data experimentation, firms create proprietary insights that strengthen their own margins while securing the wider economy.

Conclusion: The cost of deferral

Ultimately, the question is not whether Nigeria can afford to invest in agricultural R&D, but whether it can afford the escalating cost of neglect. Innovation deferred is not cost-free; it is a strategic risk with compounding interest.

Until we treat knowledge as a strategic asset rather than a discretionary input, our food security will remain fragile and our growth episodic. We must build a coordinated R&D ecosystem capable of anticipating shocks rather than merely responding to them. In the race for food security, the winner is not the one who imports the most tools, but the one who owns the blueprint.

Oluwafemi Mayowa Olusola is the Opinion Page Editor at BusinessDay. He writes provocative essays on youth development, governance, and strategic partnerships in Nigeria, highlighting the intersections of education, economic policy, and national transformation through pragmatic and data-driven analysis.

Oluwafemi Mayowa OLUSOLA is the Opinion Page Editor at BusinessDay. He writes provocative essays on youth development, governance, and strategic partnerships in Nigeria, highlighting the intersections of education, economic policy, and national transformation through pragmatic and data-driven analysis.

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