IMF raises Nigeria’s economic growth to 4.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth to 4.4 percent in 2026, from 4.2 percent in 2025, amidst impact of ongoing government reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions. The projection is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, which the Fund said it would release alongside a hybrid press conference hosted at the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels. According to the IMF, growth across sub-Saharan Africa is expected to strengthen, rising from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in both 2026 and 2027. This acceleration is attributed to macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and structural reforms in several key economies across the region. At the global level, the IMF expects growth to remain broadly steady, even as momentum in high-technology sectors moderates. While these sectors are projected to slow, they are still expected to partially offset weaker activity elsewhere. The Fund noted that tariffs and elevated uncertainty will continue to weigh on global activity in the near term, but their impact on growth is expected to diminish gradually over 2026 and 2027. Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, representing a slight deceleration from the estimated 3.3 percent recorded in 2025. The IMF revised its 2026 forecast upward by 0.2 percentage point compared with the October 2025 WEO, while the 2027 projection remains unchanged. However, the Fund highlighted significant revisions for individual countries, with growth outlooks moving in different directions across economies. Despite the relative resilience seen so far, the IMF warned that risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. It noted that current resilience is concentrated in a few sectors and often supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, leaving the global economy vulnerable to sector-specific disruptions or shocks linked to long-standing structural risks. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to continue driving global growth. China is projected to grow by 4.5 percent, reflecting a moderated but stable expansion consistent with ongoing structural rebalancing. India, at 6.4 percent, is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, supported by strong domestic demand and robust investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.6 percent, with Nigeria’s 4.4 percent expansion underpinned by reform momentum and growth in the services sector. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s growth of 4.5 percent reflects diversification efforts and normalization in the oil sector.

Growth across advanced economies is projected to remain modest but stable. The United States economy is expected to expand by 2.4 percen supported by easing financial conditions and productivity gains linked to technology adoption.

Backstory

Dail Trust reports that Nigeria’s revised forecast builds on a period of significant economic adjustment marked by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic balance.

In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s growth at 4.2 per cent reflecting lingering concerns around inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural constraints.

Since then, policymakers have continued to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment, and improving productivity across key sectors.

The IMF has repeatedly emphasised the importance of structural reforms in driving sustainable growth across emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.

The January 2026 revision suggests that the Fund now sees a stronger payoff from these reform efforts over the medium term.

What it means

The upward revision to Nigeria’s growth outlook carries important implications for policymakers, investors, and households.

Also, the medium-term growth projection can help boost investor confidence, particul arly at a time when global capital remains selective about emerging market exposure.

The IMF’s upgrade to Nigeria’s outlook is part of a wider assessment of global economic conditions, which the Fund expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3% outturn for 2025.

According to the Fund, this stability reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.

Global inflation is expected to continue easing, with headline inflation projected to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, and further to 3.4% in 2027.

For Nigeria, these global trends matter because easing inflation and steady global growth can create a more supportive external environment for domestic reforms and economic expansion.

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