Inflation likely to fall below 10% in 2026 – Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has projected inflation to fall below 10 per cent in the year 2026.

“Indeed, inflation is likely to fall below 10 per cent before the end of this year, leading to improved living standards and accelerated GDP growth. The year 2026 promises to be an epochal year for delivering prosperity to all Nigerians,” said Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy.

He spoke in a statement where he praised corporate Nigeria and other stakeholders in the Nigerian capital market for surpassing the N100 trillion market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

He promised that with the ongoing economic reforms expected to bring about greater returns, 2026 will be a better year for investors in the country.

Daily Trust reports that the NGX achieved the N100 trillion market capitalisation target on Monday with the data showing the market capitalisation closed at N101.80 trillion.

Market cap represents the total value of outstanding shares of companies in the stock market.

President Tinubu who described the achievement as an inspiration for the investing public operating in the money and capital markets, urged Nigerians to deepen their investments in the local economy, assuring that “2026 will yield even greater returns as his administration’s economic reforms continue to deliver stronger outcomes.”

Onanuga said, “With the NGX crossing the historic N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, the country is witnessing the birth of a new economic reality and rejuvenation.”

He argued that while many of the world’s markets struggled with stagnation or tepid recovery in 2025, “the NGX All-Share Index was on the ascent. It closed 2025 with a 51.19% return, higher than the 37.65% recorded in 2024. This performance ranks among the highest in the world. Year-to-date returns have significantly outpaced the S&P 500, the FTSE 100, and even many of our emerging-market peers in the BRICS+ group.

“Nigeria is no longer a frontier market to be ignored—it is now a compelling destination where value is being discovered. As the stock market reflects the entire economy, its stellar performance is a significant indicator of the country’s economic health and the confidence investors have in our economy.

“On the NGX, we have witnessed remarkable performances from listed companies across all sectors. From blue-chip industrial giants that have localised their supply chains, to a banking sector that has demonstrated resilience and technological innovation, Nigerian companies are proving that the country can deliver strong returns on investment.”

President Tinubu who noted that his administration was just getting started, said, “The pipeline for new and upcoming listings looks robust. More indigenous energy firms, tech unicorns, telecoms, and infrastructure-heavy entities are seeking to access the public market to fund their expansion. As these firms are listed, they will boost market capitalisation and deepen democratic ownership of the Nigerian economy.

“We are not celebrating the superlative stock market performance in isolation. We are also celebrating the microeconomic effects of our reforms. After the initial headwinds that followed our reforms, we are finally seeing a bend in the inflation curve.”

Inflation projected below 10%

Tinubu is also projecting inflation to drop below 10 per cent; in contrast to the 12.9 per cent projected by the CBN in its 2026 economic outlook.

According to Onanuga, crucial monetary tightening and the removal of distortionary ‘Ways and Means’ financing have restored stability to the Naira.

“Furthermore, investments in the agriculture sector have contributed to a consistent decline in inflation over the past eight months. From a 24-month high of 34.8% in December 2024, inflation decelerated to 14.45% as of November 2025, with projections indicating it will reach 12% in 2026.

“Indeed, inflation is likely to fall below 10 per cent before the end of this year, leading to improved living standards and accelerated GDP growth. The year 2026 promises to be an epochal year for delivering prosperity to all Nigerians.”

President Tinubu further stressed that also noteworthy is the status of the nation’s current account, a valid measure of overall economic health, explaining further that, “In 2024, Nigeria posted a surplus of $16 billion. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), our current account balance is projected to rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion in 2025.

“Under our administration, Nigeria is exporting more and importing less of what we can produce locally. Non-oil exports surged by 48% by the third quarter of 2025, totalling N9.2 trillion. Exports to Africa alone rose by 97% to N4.9 trillion. Manufacturing exports increased by 67% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, suggesting a strong close to the year.

“Nigeria’s foreign reserves have crossed the $45 billion mark, giving the Central Bank the firepower to maintain stability. The Naira has stabilised, moving away from the volatility that once fuelled speculation. The Central Bank of Nigeria, in its latest outlook, projects foreign reserves will cross the $50 billion threshold in the first quarter of 2026.

“We are also seeing an expansion of the rail networks, the completion of major arterial roads and the revitalisation of our ports. With the transformative Lagos-Calabar, Sokoto- Badagry superhighways, the nation’s infrastructure is growing,” he said.

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