Report: Beyond Declaring Emergency, Tinubu Must Strengthen Intelligence, Tech Capacities

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria’s deep insecurity demands more than an emergency declaration, but requires massive investment in strengthening the intelligence and technological capacities of the police and military, a report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), an independent, non-profit African think tank, has said.

The organisation stated that ongoing challenges are evident in the repeated failure of security services to detect, disrupt or prevent attacks, even when fighters travel many kilometres on motorcycles, eluding detection largely because of limited intelligence and surveillance capacity at various levels.

Despite the potential to work with communities who could provide valuable information about insurgents’ movements and activities, the research group said that deficiencies in detection and prevention enabled Boko Haram’s factions to overrun more than 15 military outposts in 2025 alone.

The Institute researches and supports policies on peace, security, governance and development across the continent. Founded in 1991 in South Africa, it now has offices in Pretoria, Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Dakar, among others.

Its work focuses on conflict prevention, governance, crime and justice reform, violent extremism, climate-related security risks, and long-term development forecasting. ISS combines research with direct policy advice, training and capacity building for governments, regional bodies and civil society.

However, it stated in the report that Nigeria’s security forces’ capacity is constrained partly due to the limited use of technology for operational planning, surveillance, and reconnaissance. For instance, it said that this, together with weak human intelligence, forced the troops in Brig. Gen. Musa Uba’s convoy into hurried defensive positions.

“Limited use of technology for planning, surveillance and reconnaissance constrains security force capacity.  The situation was compounded by a lack of secure communication during the failed attempt to rescue Uba. Security forces relied on commercial cellphone networks and WhatsApp messaging to coordinate their movements, making them vulnerable to interception.

“On top of this, the Lake Chad Basin’s forests, mountains and islands make navigation by security forces difficult and provide hideouts for groups. There is also evidence that some groups, particularly Boko Haram’s Islamic State West Africa Province faction, are increasingly using modified commercial drones and other technologies for their operations.

“To effectively tackle the country’s violence and insecurity, Nigeria must go beyond declaring a national emergency and recruiting more security personnel. Investments are needed in strengthening the intelligence and technological capacities of the police and military.

“Relations with communities in affected areas are vital to enhancing human intelligence, which ultimately enables the detection, disruption and prevention of terrorist and bandit attacks. Secure communications and the use of modern technological tools for surveillance are also essential.The country’s security sector is beset by long-standing challenges that undermine its ability to address violence and insecurity,” the report said.

It acknowledged that Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has declared a national security emergency, ordering the recruitment of more security personnel alongside other far-reaching measures, stressing that the November 26 announcement reflects mounting pressure on the government following soaring insecurity marked by increased Boko Haram brutality and mass abductions by bandits.

Violence in the country, it said, continues to expand southward, as seen in attacks in the previously unaffected Kwara State.

“Tinubu’s declaration also follows United States President Donald Trump’s claims on 21 November that Nigeria has lost control of its security, and that the country is tolerating a Christian genocide. Nigeria’s government and experts have rejected the genocide claim as a one-sided oversimplification of a complex problem.

“The situation indeed calls for immediate action, which should include addressing long-standing challenges that weaken the country’s ability to tackle the violence.

“The declaration orders the Nigeria Police Force to recruit an additional 20,000 officers. That would bring planned recruitment for 2025 to 50,000 – only a fraction of the 190,000 recommended by Inspector-General of Police Kayode Egbetokun in 2023. The police force currently totals around 370 0,000 members.

“Tinubu also ordered the army to recruit more personnel, although no number was mentioned. A few days earlier, Chief of Army Staff Lieutenant General Waidi Shaibu announced plans to recruit 24 000 soldiers. Tinubu’s measures rightly tackle understaffed security outposts responsible for wide and inaccessible areas

“The president further instructed police officers on VIP-guard duty to be withdrawn, undergo rapid retraining to deliver more efficient policing, and be redeployed to areas affected by violence and insecurity.

“He asked the Department of State Services (DSS) – the country’s internal intelligence agency – to immediately deploy trained forest guards to combat bandits and terrorists. He also requested the National Assembly to amend the 2020 Nigeria Police Act to permit the establishment of independent state police forces.

“These measures are a step in the right direction and reflect an apparent attempt to address a key challenge – understaffed security outposts responsible for wide and largely inaccessible areas, particularly in the northeast and northwest. However recent abductions and terrorist violence reveal long-standing intelligence, operational and capacity deficiencies that limit Nigeria’s response to banditry and violent extremism,” it added.

According to the report, these deficiencies were illustrated by the abduction of more than two dozen students by armed bandits in the north-western Kebbi State on November 18 as well as the over 300 students and staff from St Mary’s School in Niger State.