Guinea-Bissau asylum move signals Nigeria’s hard line on coups – Analyst

Nigeria’s decision to grant asylum to Fernando Dia Da Costa, the opposition presidential candidate in Guinea-Bissau, marks one of the clearest signals yet that President Bola Tinubu intends to take a firmer stance against the rising tide of military rule in West Africa, according to international affairs analyst Deji Ajomale.

The move, he says, is not just a humanitarian gesture but a calculated political statement designed to reinforce Nigeria’s pro-democracy credentials at a time when constitutional governance across the region is increasingly under threat.

Speaking with BusinessDay in Abuja, Ajomale described the asylum offer as a “deliberate and strategic” decision that sends a powerful message about Nigeria’s foreign policy intentions under the current administration.

Read also: Tinubu grants assylum to Guinea-Bissau opposition leader over assassination fears

Though the country is still in the process of deploying ambassadors and streamlining its external engagements, he insisted Nigeria is well positioned—morally, diplomatically and institutionally—to take such a consequential stance.

He argued that Nigeria’s reputation as a longstanding defender of democratic transitions in West Africa gives it both the legitimacy and responsibility to intervene when democratic actors in neighbouring states are endangered.

“Nigeria is in a position to grant asylum now,” he said. “Our internal issues should not stop us from playing our big-brother role. Leadership is not something a country abandons simply because it is dealing with domestic challenges.”

Da Costa, who contested Guinea-Bissau’s November 23 presidential election, is reported to face threats following a period of heightened political volatility in his home country.

Guinea-Bissau is currently led by a military junta, part of a growing bloc of West African states where army-led transitions have replaced civilian administrations.

Ajomale believes Nigeria’s move will likely irritate some of these governments but says the long-term benefits outweigh the diplomatic discomfort it may generate.

He cited Burkina Faso and other military-led governments as potential flashpoints, noting that Nigeria’s protection of an opposition figure could easily be misinterpreted as meddling.

“We must acknowledge that this may put Nigeria somewhat at loggerheads with Burkina Faso. Not because we want to be, but because Nigeria has taken this decision in the interest of democracy. It is worth it by every inch,” he said.

For Ajomale, Nigeria’s gesture fits into a broader regional context in which coup rumours, threats and murmurs of military dissatisfaction have become disturbingly frequent. In such a climate, he believes Nigeria has no choice but to assert its commitment to democratic governance.

“There’s been talk of military coups here and there. There is no better time for Nigeria to stand for democracy than now,” he said.

He also warned that failing to act—or even maintaining a neutral stance—would risk signalling acquiescence at a time when authoritarian impulses in West Africa need clear pushback. “Everything is a statement. Even silence is a statement. If Nigeria says it is not concerned, that too sends a message. We must be vocal about what we stand for,” he said.

Ajomale argued that Nigeria cannot shy away from taking principled positions, even when they create short-term diplomatic frictions. He insisted that such decisions ultimately strengthen the country’s standing, both regionally and globally, by affirming its role as a guardian of constitutional order. “We have to do what has to be done. Eventually, everyone will come around,” he added.

How Nigeria’s Asylum system works

Nigeria’s move also underscores its longstanding tradition of offering refuge to individuals fleeing political persecution, a practice rooted in international conventions and domestic law.

Although the asylum system is not among the world’s largest, Nigeria has historically served as a safe haven for people escaping unrest in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Sudan and other conflict-ridden states.

The system is overseen by the National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons (NCFRMI), working with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and national security agencies.

Read also: Guinea-Bissau military takeover: West Africa at turning point, ECOWAS warns

Applicants seeking asylum in Nigeria typically file their claim with the Federal Commissioner for Refugees or through UNHCR. They are then registered, interviewed and evaluated by Nigeria’s Eligibility Committee, which determines whether they meet the criteria for refugee protection.

If successful, they gain legal protection against return to their home country and are issued the necessary documentation to remain in Nigeria. Rejected applicants are entitled to explanations and have the right to appeal.

This structured, rights-based system reflects Nigeria’s commitment to the global principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits sending individuals back to places where their lives or freedoms may be in danger.

Ajomale believes the asylum granted to Da Costa falls squarely within this humanitarian tradition while also reinforcing a political message that Nigeria remains committed to defending democracy even when doing so invites controversy.

For him, this moment presents an opportunity for Nigeria to reassert itself on the global stage after years of what analysts often describe as reduced foreign policy visibility.

By siding with democratic actors in a troubled region, Ajomale contended, Nigeria has demonstrated that it intends to reclaim its role as a stabilising and normative force in West Africa.

“It reinforces our democratic credentials and signals that, despite internal pressures, Nigeria remains committed to constitutional order,” he said. “This is the time for Nigeria to lead, not step back.”

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