Seven key issues that will shape the economy in 2026

Nigeria’s journey from macroeconomic stabilisation to a more sustainable and inclusive growth will be spurred on by a mix of policy choices, structural constraints, and external conditions.

PwC’s 2026 Nigeria Economic Outlook, titled ‘Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth’, stated that there are seven key issues that will determine if recent forms have brought more than a measure of stability, but also sustainable growth.

Strengthening monetary policy effectiveness

For a country dependent on export trades, the ability of monetary authorities to maintain a relatively stable currency will remain a key issue in 2026. While analysts and market watchers expect inflation to ease this year, the PwC notes that pressures from exchange rate volatility, supply constraints, and external shocks persist.

According to the reports, “anchoring expectations, inflation risks & external shocks challenge price stability” will be critical for supporting investment, credit growth, and economic confidence.

Domestic security and social stability pressures

Nigeria continues to grapple with severe security challenges that have significant economic implications. “Prevailing insecurity and land-use conflicts challenge national cohesion,” PwC said. A swift solution to the various security problems is key to improving productivity, restoring investor confidence, and supporting more balanced regional development.

Global dynamics and geopolitics

The unpredictable nature of the global and geopolitical macroenvironment will need to be maneuvered if Nigeria is to have a successful economic year.  “Shifting trade patterns, regional tensions, and policy realignment define global outlook.”

Read also: Here are five shocks that may disrupt price stability in 2026 — PwC

Uneven sectoral growth dynamics

Sectoral growth is expected to remain uneven, even as the non-oil economy shows resilience, due to structural bottlenecks like infrastructure gaps, high input costs, and regulatory challenges.  Solving these issues is essential to achieve a broad-based growth come year-end.

Consumer dilemma and household welfare

For a country whose citizens spend nearly 70 percent of their earnings on food, household consumption is likely to remain a dilemma in 2026. Even with moderating inflation, “spending recovery in the face of a dwindling income” reduces the strength of a consumer-led growth and affects demand across multiple sectors.

Addressing fiscal sustainability and executing reforms

A successful fiscal policy depends on the execution of reforms rather than policy announcements. “Elevated debt obligations, deepening revenue mobilisation strategy & acceleration of reforms shape policy choices,” said PwC.

Stronger momentum in the emergence of digital economy and AI

Recent reforms point to a country slowly diverting to a digital economy. PwC analysts note that both the digital economy and artificial intelligence will play an increasingly important role in Nigeria’s growth outlook this year. Incessant power supply and limited access to broadband internet remain a major snag.

“Regulatory clarity, AI adoption gaps & infrastructure constraints shape digital growth.”

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