GDP expected to rebound 4.22% in Q4 –Report

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Analysts at CardinalStone expect Nigeria’s GDP to grow to 4.22 per cent in Q4 2025, an increase from 3.98 per cent in Q3. This signals a positive outlook for the year, as economic growth is projected to accelerate towards year-end.

This was disclosed in its Macro Research note released on Tuesday, following the latest GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, marking a slight improvement over the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024 but a decline compared to the 4.23 per cent in Q2’25.

Reacting to the economic data, CardinalStone said the dip in the Q3’25 GDP had been anticipated, given softer oil output, a consequence of fading supportive base effects.

However, a rebound is anticipated in the last quarter of the year, which is expected to be driven by improving macroeconomic conditions.

“The recently released PMI numbers for November 2025 showed a strong and broad-based expansion in aggregate economic activities. We perceive that this robust output is likely to translate into strong GDP numbers for Q4’25. Similarly, with macroeconomic conditions improving, we expect this to further filter into strong GDP numbers. Overall, we forecast Q4’25 GDP at 4.22 per cent, translating into a full-year 2025 growth of 3.92 per cent,” the economic update indicated.

On the performance of the economy in the third quarter, the analysts said oil production moderated in the period under review to 1.64 mb/d (vs. 1.68 mb/d in Q2’25), due to scheduled maintenance activities carried out at some upstream facilities and delays in the commencement of operations at OMLs 71 and 72.

In the non-oil sector, which recorded faster growth, currency appreciation and moderating inflation served as anchors.

“The combination of both factors led to improved domestic consumption, supporting a faster pace of growth in the trade sector. In the same vein, financial services, which are largely banks, profited from elevated OMO rates, which averaged 28.0% in the period (vs. 27.5% in Q2’25). Banks also enjoyed higher fees and commissions in the period, providing an additional layer of support for output. On the flip side, growth slowed in the ICT sector, as the Nigerian Communications Commission continued to deactivate SIM cards not linked to the NIN. Elsewhere, the agric sector growth scaled to the highest level in 14 quarters, stemming from improved output due to the onset of the harvest season. The improving macroeconomic conditions are yet to be evident in the manufacturing sector, as elevated borrowing costs continue to dissuade activity. As such, the cumulative banking credit to the private sector was lower in the review period compared to Q2’25.”

The projection by CardinalStone almost matched that of the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni, who, in the lender’s latest PMI released on Monday, said, “We still see the Nigerian economy growing by 4.0 per cent in 2025. Both manufacturing and services are likely to see higher growth in 2025 compared to 2024 levels, based on the results from the PMI surveys so far this year. Elsewhere, the government has been visible in infrastructure, livestock development, easing trade constraints, and attracting investments in oil & gas and manufacturing.

“Apart from that, the Dangote refinery is expected to continue to have a forward-linkage impact on other sectors of the economy. Also, likely lower interest rates in line with lower inflation and exchange rate stabilisation should support private consumption and business investments in 2026. Because of these factors, we see more sectors contributing to the real GDP growth rate in 2026 compared to 2025, likely translating to an improvement in the quality of life of the citizens relative to 2025.”

For the experts at Comercio Partners, the performance of the economy in Q3 indicated a “two-speed economy”.

“Non-oil sectors are stabilising and providing a buffer against external and structural shocks, while the oil sector faces operational bottlenecks that limit its contribution to aggregate growth,” the investment house said, adding that “Future GDP performance will depend on improvements in oil-sector operations, continued non-oil expansion, and the transmission of monetary policy into investment and consumption.”

Meristem Securities also projected growth for the country in Q4. “Overall, we anticipate the economy will continue to expand, with growth projected at 4.08 per cent YoY in Q4:2025 and 3.88 per cent for 2025FY.”

Oluwakemi is a Senior Correspondent with The PUNCH. She has over 10 years experience across digital and traditional journalism spheres, and currently covers the Capital Market.

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