Why Army Chief Lt. Gen. Shaibu Signals Nigeria’s Counter-Insurgency Shift from Containment to Elimination in 2026

Deji Adesogan

Nigeria is approaching the decisive phase of its long internal security struggle. By 2026, the country can no longer afford a security doctrine defined by containment, reactive deployments or temporary suppression of threats posed by Boko Haram, ISWAP and entrenched bandit networks. The moment now calls for leadership capable of ending wars, not merely managing them. In Lt. Gen. Waheed Shaibu, Nigeria has a Chief of Army Staff whose career, command philosophy and operational posture point clearly toward that necessary shift from endurance to elimination.

Lt. Gen. Shaibu is a soldier shaped by war rather than theory. His professional formation occurred largely in frontline operational environments, especially in the North East, where Nigeria’s counter-insurgency campaign has been most prolonged, complex and unforgiving. Over years of direct command, he confronted Boko Haram and later ISWAP at periods when both groups were highly adaptive, mobile and lethal. Those encounters gave him a granular understanding of insurgent tactics, terrain exploitation, logistics, intelligence deception and the psychological dimensions of asymmetric warfare. Among troops, long before his rise to the highest office in the Army, he earned the enduring nickname “bush colonel” a title reserved for officers whose courage, presence and leadership under fire are proven in combat rather than conferred by rank.

That battlefield credibility now anchors his authority as Chief of Army Staff. Since assuming office three months ago, Shaibu has consistently rejected the culture of distant, desk-bound command. Instead, he has chosen visible leadership from operational theatres, engaging frontline units and field commanders directly. This approach is neither ceremonial nor symbolic; it is doctrinal. In modern counter-terror warfare, command presence accelerates decision-making, sharpens situational awareness and enforces accountability across the chain of command. It also sends a clear signal to troops that the leadership understands the risks they face and shares in the burden of the fight.

Central to Shaibu’s command philosophy is his insistence that troop welfare is an operational necessity, not a concession. He understands that sustained offensive campaigns require soldiers who are motivated, properly supported and confident in their leadership. By prioritising welfare, morale, rotation policies and living conditions, he is deliberately preparing the Nigerian Army for prolonged, high-tempo operations across multiple theatres. Armies that neglect their soldiers lose momentum; armies that invest in their troops retain endurance, cohesion and fighting spirit. As Nigeria moves toward 2026, this approach is foundational to any credible strategy of decisive force.

Equally significant has been his emphasis on merit-based postings and appointments. Drawing from hard lessons learned in combat, Shaibu recognises that poor leadership decisions cost lives, squander momentum and concede territory. Under his leadership, competence, experience and operational performance increasingly define command responsibility. This is not administrative reform for its own sake; it is combat reform. Against enemies that exploit leadership gaps, weak coordination and slow responses, a merit driven command structure restores institutional confidence and strengthens the Army’s operational backbone.

Strategically so far, Shaibu’s leadership signals a clear departure from episodic offensives toward sustained dominance of the battlespace. His record suggests an approach focused on denying terrorist groups freedom of movement, dismantling leadership and logistics networks, and preventing regeneration after tactical defeats. Against BokoHaram and ISWAP, this implies relentless pressure, intelligence led targeting and uncompromising control of reclaimed terrain. Against bandit formations, it points to coordinated, mobile operations designed not merely to disperse criminal groups, but to permanently degrade their capacity to regroup, rearm and terrorise communities.

What distinguishes Lt. Gen. Shaibu at this juncture is clarity forged by experience. He does not view Nigeria’s enemies as abstract threats or briefing-room statistics. He has faced them in combat, observed their patterns and understood where previous campaigns achieved results and where they stalled. That knowledge positions him to lead not another cycle of attrition, but a campaign oriented toward strategic finality. His leadership reflects an understanding that wars against insurgents are not ended by pauses, but by pressure sustained until adversaries lose the capacity to recover.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to appoint Shaibu as 25th Chief of Army Staff of the Nigerian Army increasingly appears strategic rather than symbolic. As Nigeria finally approaches a year that may redefine its internal security trajectory, the Army is being led by a commander whose authority rests on battlefield legitimacy rather than rhetoric. Shaibu brings together offensive instinct, troop centred leadership, merit driven command and strategic realism qualities that align precisely with the demands of the moment.

If fully empowered and consistently supported, 2026 can mark Nigeria’s transition from managing insecurity to dismantling it. Under Lt. Gen. Waheed Shaibu, the Nigerian Army is positioned not merely to react to threats, but to dictate tempo, dominate terrain and impose irreversible outcomes. For Boko Haram, ISWAP and organised bandit networks, the message is increasingly unmistakable: the era of accommodation and survival through adaptation is drawing to a close. The remaining variable is not leadership, but resolve. Decisive military outcomes require sustained political will, timely logistics, intelligence integration and institutional unity. Nigeria now has a Chief of Army Staff prepared to lead from the front and prosecute the fight to its logical conclusion. What remains is the collective responsibility of the state to match that readiness with unwavering support.

As Nigeria stands on the threshold of 2026, the choice before the nation is no longer whether decisive action is necessary, but whether it will be sustained. With Lt. Gen. Waheed Shaibu at the helm, the opportunity exists to move from containment to control, and from control to elimination. If that opportunity is seized, 2026 may be remembered not as another year in a prolonged terrorism, but as the moment the balance finally shifted in favour of the Nigerian state.

Deji Adesogan, is a security analyst and digital communications expert. He can be reached via adesoganmedia@gmail.com or on X (Twitter) @DejiAdesogan.