Will Nigeria Break Its Mass Metering Jinx in 2026?

Musa Ilallah

Successive Nigerian governments have tried to close the country’s yawning electricity metering gap, rolling out a series of ambitious programmes with limited success. Today, Nigeria still has a deficit of more than 6 million meters, out of an estimated 12 million electricity consumers.

Why does metering matter? Is it not simply another way to make Nigerians pay more at a time when wallets and purses are already under severe pressure? In reality, metering delivers benefits that many people do not fully appreciate.

Beyond its direct cost-control advantages for individual consumers—particularly those who have suffered the arbitrariness of estimated billing—metering strengthens the entire electricity system and, by extension, the broader economy. It allows Distribution Companies (Discos) to collect revenues more efficiently and transparently. Modern smart meters are sophisticated pieces of technology, capable of collecting, interpreting, and processing granular data.

That data is invaluable. It enables better planning by providing a clearer picture of demand, allowing investments and infrastructure to be targeted more accurately. Crucially, it also makes targeted subsidies possible. With reliable consumption data, the government can identify who needs support and where they are, ensuring assistance reaches those at the bottom of the economic ladder. This is standard practice around the world.

For too long, Nigeria has relied on subsidies that are neither targeted nor supported by credible data, resulting in massive losses, fraud, and wastage. The petrol subsidy scandal that erupted in 2012 remains a vivid reminder of what happens when subsidies are applied indiscriminately: those who benefit most are often not those who need help the most.

Metering, therefore, is of immense importance. It is one of the most underrated pillars of a functioning economy.

President Bola Tinubu’s response to Nigeria’s metering challenge is the new Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI). For perhaps the first time, the issue is being driven by direct presidential intervention—an indication of how seriously the federal government views the problem.

As always, the devil is in the details. The PMI has mobilised substantial funding from both federal and state governments to finance the rollout of the millions of smart meters required to close the gap. This marks a notable departure from previous efforts, which treated metering almost exclusively as a federal responsibility.

With state governments now involved, there is a broader sense of ownership—an important factor given that states hold equity stakes in the Discos, who are ultimately responsible for deploying the meters.

Another point to note: the PMI rollout is expected to involve a mix of imported and locally assembled smart meters. The case for local meters is straightforward: Nigeria must deepen local content across all sectors of the economy. This has become even more pressing following the launch of the ‘Nigeria First policy’.

The argument for imported meters is equally compelling. The scale and urgency of the task mean that Nigeria cannot afford to rely on a single source. While local manufacturing capacity has grown in recent years, it is not yet sufficient to deliver millions of meters within a short timeframe. In short, patriotism must be balanced with pragmatism.

Beyond local manufacturing, the PMI also promises benefits for local technical capacity. A successful mass rollout will require thousands of trained technicians, creating opportunities for young Nigerians willing to acquire new skills. The initiative plans to oversee such training programmes in collaboration with public and private sector partners.

These skills will likely extend beyond meter installation, forming a foundation for broader electrical expertise applicable to construction, manufacturing, automobiles, and other sectors.

On paper, the PMI appears well thought out and carries many of the hallmarks of a potential jinx breaker. But it must prove itself in practice. Its success will ultimately be judged by the quality and speed of implementation, and by whether it truly departs from past initiatives that stalled or progressed at a crawl.

Public awareness will also be critical. This is where institutions such as the National Orientation Agency (NOA) can play a supporting role, leveraging their national reach and renewed momentum. For the PMI to succeed, all hands must be on deck. This is not a task for the government alone.

Every stakeholder in the electricity value chain has a role to play in successful implementation—because when Discos plug revenue leakages, they are better positioned to meet their obligations to generation companies, which in turn can pay their fuel suppliers. It is yet another example of the cascading benefits of effective metering.

Will the PMI live up to the high expectations surrounding it, or will it follow the path of previous interventions? In 2026, Nigerians should have a clear answer to this all-important question.

Musa Ilallah, a public affairs analyst based in Abuja, can be reached via musahk123@yahoo.com