Nigeria’s H2 2025 Economic Growth Boosted By Non-Oil Sector

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has admitted the positive impact of Nigeria’s non-oil sector on its economic growth in the second half of last year.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, the Organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”

This is as the report, quoting primary sources, noted that the country’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November.

OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.

Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million bpd, Q2: 1.481 million bpd, Q3: 1.444 million bpd, and 1.42 million bpd in Q4.

According to the report, cooling inflation, a firmer naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.

It forecasted inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.

“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.

Despite this sustained disinflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria kept its policy rate unchanged at 27% in December, citing its commitment to securing low and stable inflation and expecting earlier tightening to further dampen price pressures.

“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.

OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.

Channels Television had earlier reported that the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has said there may be cuts in the interest rate if inflation keeps cooling.

Edun revealed this during an interview on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, as reported by Bloomberg.

According to Edun, a sustained decline in inflation would create room for additional rate cuts, helping to reduce borrowing costs and easing the government’s debt servicing burden.

Lower inflation and borrowing costs would free up revenue currently spent on servicing debt and improve the fiscal balance, Edun said.

The signal comes at a time when Nigeria’s budget is heavily burdened by debt servicing costs, volatile oil revenues, and a widening fiscal deficit, making any easing in borrowing costs materially important.

A cut in rates could reduce debt-servicing costs and ease pressure on the country’s strained public finances.

Edun, according to Bloomberg, commended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for what he described as “excellent” progress in curbing inflation, attributing recent improvements to aggressive monetary tightening implemented over the past two years.

The CBN had more than doubled its policy rate from 2022 levels in a bid to rein in inflationary pressures, before implementing a 50 basis-point cut in September that brought the monetary policy rate to 27%.

READ ALSO: Finance Minister Edun Signals Interest Rate Cuts If Disinflation Persists

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said it will publish two separate inflation figures for December.

According to a Bloomberg report, the development followed changes to its consumer price index (CPI) methodology, which caused the headline rate to more than double.

Nigeria’s inflation data are closely monitored by the CBN as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework.

The CBN has already factored in the CPI rebasing and related computational issues in its three-year inflation forecast.

The apex bank is targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13% by next year, despite current price pressures and statistical adjustments.

The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI, which introduced methodological adjustments, significantly distorted the December inflation reading.

However, citing sources within the bureau, Bloomberg said the inflation data, scheduled for release on January 15, are projected to show an “artificially spiked” inflation rate of 31.2% for December, compared with 14.5% recorded in November.

READALSO: NBS To Release Two December Inflation Figures Amid CPI Spike Concerns

The Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, said the agency will take the unusual step of publishing both inflation figures to ensure transparency.

According to him, one figure will reflect economic fundamentals, while the other will capture the inflated outcome resulting from the rebasing methodology.

Nigeria’s H2 2025 Economic Growth Boosted By Non-Oil Sector — OPEC

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