AI-Driven Sustainable Agri-Finance and Policy Systems: Merging Climate Intelligence, Risk Management, Value Chain Optimization for Global Food Security

Kehinde Ayodeji Damilola

Agriculture is at the heart of our survival and economic well-being, providing food, jobs, and income for billions across the globe. However, this vital sector is facing mounting pressures from climate change, resource depletion and unstable financial systems. With rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and changing ecological patterns, agricultural productivity has taken a hit in many areas, especially in developing nations. On top of that, inefficiencies in agricultural finance, policy execution, and global trade have widened the gap of inequality and jeopardized food security.

In light of these challenges, incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into sustainable agriculture and agri-finance systems offers a groundbreaking opportunity. AI technologies can boost climate intelligence, enhance financial transparency and streamline agricultural value chains, paving the way for a more resilient and fair global food system.

Ultimately, the convergence of AI, green finance, and climate-smart policy design marks a transformative shift in the global agricultural paradigm. Despite these benefits, the use of AI-driven sustainable agri-finance and policy systems remains undersubscribed in Nigeria, primarily due to poor awareness. It is commendable that an Osun-born agricultural economist along with his other team of authors took a deep-dive to advance academic research, contributing to the body of knowledge within this area of human enterprise.

Let me introduce Mr. Adedapo Emmanuel Alawode, an accomplished agricultural economist, data analyst and researcher with several publications in local and international journals. His work spans artificial intelligence, agricultural finance, climate resilience, and food security. According to Stats weekly report, Dapo has 3,176 reads, 31 citations, with 96.9 RI score, which is compared to be higher than 63% of all ResearchGate members and higher than 98% of ResearchGate members who first published in 2023.

In his study on AI-Driven Climate-Smart Agriculture and Fraud-Resistant Green Finance, he explores how AI and digital technologies are transforming agriculture into a data-driven, climate-resilient sector. Using drones, sensors and satellite data, AI systems enhance crop management, irrigation, and pest control. The research also addresses fraud risks in green finance, proposing AI-based verification and geospatial monitoring to ensure transparency.

Another work, Agricultural Subsidy Reforms and Their Effects on Smallholder Farmers, analyzes how reforming subsidies influences farmers’ income and efficiency. Drawing on data from Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia, it finds that targeted, transparent subsidy systems—supported by extension services and credit—can improve productivity. However, weak administration and infrastructure remain key constraints.

In Integrating IoT and AI in Sustainable Agriculture, Alawode demonstrates how connected sensors, drones and AI analytics can optimize resource use, reduce environmental harm, and strengthen financial accountability. Predictive modeling also enhances insurance accuracy and risk management. The study proposes a framework linking environmental sustainability with financial transparency.

His paper on Financial Derivatives and Risk Management in Agricultural Markets examines how tools such as futures and options help mitigate market volatility and stabilize prices. While derivatives support price discovery and liquidity, speculative trading and unequal access pose challenges. The study calls for inclusive regulation and financial education.

In The Role of Agricultural Value Chains in Enhancing Food Security and Economic Development, he explains how linking farmers to markets and processors boosts efficiency, reduces losses, and promotes inclusive growth. Upgrading value chains through infrastructure, digital platforms, and partnerships can foster food security, rural jobs, and gender equity.

His research on Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and Rural Livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa details how erratic weather and heat stress undermine yields and livelihoods. It highlights adaptation through technology, indigenous practices, and inclusive policy, stressing gender and youth empowerment for climate resilience.

Adedapo’s article, Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and Rural Livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, critically examines the multifaceted effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in SSA and its cascading consequences on rural household incomes, employment patterns, food systems, and migration trends, identifying gaps in current adaptation strategies and offering a roadmap for integrating climate-smart agriculture with broader rural development policies.

In another groundbreaking research work, he explores the heterogeneity in U.S. food consumption, with a focus on how households respond to changes in food prices across regions and other social demographics, such as SNAP and non-SNAP participants.

In a poster presentation titled Recent Trends in New Mexico Farm Income: The Significance of Government Payments, Adedapo examines trends of net farm income components from 2014 to 2020 (pre-pandemic) and 2021 to 2023 (post-pandemic) considering the COVID-19 pandemic. The study analyzes trends in the value of production, production expenses, and government payments, suggesting a meaningful effect of trade disputes, pandemic disruptions, and add-hoc payments on NM farm income.

He also worked on AI-Enhanced Scenario Planning for U.S. Food Trade Policy, with focus on how AI can strengthen trade policy amid global disruptions. Using machine learning and geospatial analytics, AI can forecast shocks, support rapid policy response, and promote equity. The study advocates ethical AI governance and collaboration to build resilient food systems.

The author’s body of work serves as a complex and detailed guide for transforming modern agriculture and finance, going well beyond what individual research papers can offer. At the heart of it all is a fresh blend of cutting-edge digital technology and essential economic policy changes, all spurred by the urgent challenge of climate change. The research clearly shows that building a climate-resilient global food system is tightly linked to creating fraud-resistant green finance and ensuring transparent governance.

Works like AI-Driven Climate-Smart Agriculture and Integrating IoT and AI in Sustainable Agriculture emphasize the practical role of technology, illustrating how tools like geospatial monitoring, sensors, and machine learning are pushing farming into a new era of efficient resource use and improved productivity. The immediate benefit here is a clear path toward environmental sustainability, along with a reliable way to verify land use and crop yields, which can significantly cut down on the misallocation and corruption often seen in agricultural subsidies and green investments. But the research doesn’t stop at technical applications; it also provides vital insights for systemic policy reform.

The thorough analysis of Agricultural Subsidy Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa offers crucial evidence for policymakers, showing that effective interventions need to shift from poorly managed input-based support to more conditional, targeted, and inclusive frameworks that are closely tied to supportive extension services and access to credit. This push for transparency is echoed in the examination of Financial Derivatives and Risk Management, which, while recognizing the important role these instruments play in stabilizing unpredictable agricultural markets, also highlights the urgent need for stronger regulations to reduce speculative risks and tackle the unfair equity gap that often leaves smallholder farmers behind.

The cumulative impact of policies calls for frameworks that are not just efficient but also inclusive and fair at their core. This research portfolio’s most significant contribution lies in its emphasis on building resilience throughout entire ecosystems, stretching from local farms to global trade networks. The insightful evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa offers essential regional context, highlighting the vulnerabilities faced by rain-fed farming. It champions integrated adaptation strategies that blend indigenous knowledge with modern technology, while also addressing the crucial roles of gender and youth in enhancing adaptation capacity.

This regional perspective is further enriched by the global initiative on AI-Enhanced Scenario Planning for U.S. Food Trade Policy, which raises the conversation to a level of national strategic preparedness. By introducing an AI framework to simulate and predict supply chain disruptions, the author lays out a blueprint for national policies that shift from merely reacting to crises to engaging in proactive, resilient planning. Ultimately, by linking value chain improvements, subsidy reforms, digital integrity, and strategic trade planning, the author offers a thorough and actionable vision for transforming agriculture to withstand both current and future global and climatic challenges, with a particular focus on benefiting developing regions.

* Dr. Damilola, a senior lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, writes from Ife, Osun State