2027: Tinubu targets South, North-Central for bloc votes

President Bola Tinubu. Photo: State House

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Details have emerged on how President Bola Tinubu and his party, the All Progressives Congress, are building a movement to secure bloc votes from the South and North-Central regions ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Insiders at the APC secretariat said the move was designed to guarantee victory for the President despite growing resistance from some parts of the North.

Sunday PUNCH gathered that the plan, described by one principal party official as a “materialising countermeasure”, began more than five months ago.

The strategy, the official explained, was conceived after intelligence reports indicated potential political threats from the core North and the emergence of the African Democratic Party-led coalition of opposition leaders.

The party chieftain named the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; Chairman of the APC Governors’ Forum, Hope Uzodimma; National Secretary of the APC, Ajibola Basiru; and the lawmaker representing Ikeja Federal Constituency, James Faleke, as the brains behind the plan.

Northern resistance

Over the past few months, top northern groups, particularly the Northern Elders Forum and the Arewa Consultative Forum, have expressed displeasure with Tinubu’s administration, declaring that they might not support him for a second term.

The groups have, at different times, accused Tinubu of marginalising the region in political appointments, project distribution and efforts to tackle insecurity.

Similarly, political figures such as a former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai; former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami; former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman; and other loyalists of the late President Muhammadu Buhari have been mobilising northerners against the President.

Data from the Independent National Electoral Commission show that of the 8,794,726 votes Tinubu polled in 2023, 5,346,686 came from the North, underscoring how crucial the region remains to his political survival.

Tinubu won six northern states:  Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue and Borno,  while the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, polled 5,229,473 votes in the region, winning Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba states.

South, North-Central as power base

To cushion the effect of northern pushback, findings showed that the APC has intensified efforts to consolidate Tinubu’s control of the South and the North-Central.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, the APC official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the ruling party’s game plan was designed to ensure that all states in the South are secured for Tinubu in 2027.

“The motive behind this move is that no opposition should win any state in the South, to guard against what we experienced in 2023,” he said.

In 2023, Atiku won Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa states in the South with 637,196 votes.

The Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, won Lagos, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, Anambra, Delta, Cross River and Edo states.

The party source said the goal was to flip those states won in the South through “targeted alliances, elite outreach and federal influence”.

The source attributed the recent defections of PDP governors in the South to the “materialisation of the countermeasure”, saying everything was in place for the APC to win the region.

“The team has successfully delivered the South to the President. There is nothing stopping us from winning all the southern states. Except for Abia and Oyo, all other states in the South are now with the APC.

“The Governor of Osun State declared support for Asiwaju (the President) and was willing to join the APC. Once we secure the targeted bloc votes in the South, we are 50 per cent down the victory line,” the APC official said.

When contacted to give more insight into the APC’s moves to win the key Southern and North-Central states lost in the 2023 presidential election, the party’s National Secretary, Basiru, simply said, “I don’t discuss strategy on the pages of newspapers. Thank you.”

Efforts to get further reactions from the APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, proved abortive as he did not pick calls or respond to text and WhatsApp messages sent to him.

Aside from losing nine Southern states, including Lagos, Tinubu also lost key North-Central states in the 2023 election, with Peter Obi winning Plateau, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, a senior APC official said the party had, over the past few months, made strategic moves to reclaim the lost North-Central states ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The source said, “According to the plan on the ground, the North-Central is targeted to be the final straw that will break the camel’s back. I am aware that the team has commissioned some individuals in the region to ensure that the President secures bloc votes from there.

“Once we secure the South and the North-Central, whatever votes any opposing candidate gets from the North-East and North-West will be neutralised, and we will carry the day. Do not forget that the Vice President is from Borno, and there are efforts to ensure substantial votes from Kaduna State. The team is working hard to deliver as planned.”

Party eyes 90% votes

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, the Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, said leaders of the party from the region were working “hand in hand with the Presidency and the APC national secretariat” to ensure the region is delivered for the APC in 2027.

He said the target of the APC leadership was to secure 80–90 per cent of the region’s votes for the President.

Zazzaga said, “We have been engaged in different consultations. We are meeting with clerics, youth organisations and other groups. The task is to deliver the North-Central for the President, and we are all working to give him a massive vote.

“Since the commencement of democracy in 1999, we have not had any president who has given the North-Central special treatment like Tinubu. He has been fixing our infrastructure and has given us many juicy appointments.

“We have the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission and the APC National Chairman. With our ongoing efforts, we are going to give him 80–90 per cent of our votes.”

Asked if the Presidency or the national secretariat was coordinating the task, Zazzaga said, “We are working hand in hand with the national secretariat and the Presidency.”

He added that some businessmen and other notable individuals in the North-Central were involved in the task of delivering the region for the President.

Zazzaga also expressed optimism that a candidate from the North-Central would succeed Tinubu after his second term in 2031.

APC’s ‘empty strategy’ will fail — PDP, ADC, NNPP

Meanwhile, the Peoples Democratic Party, the African Democratic Congress and the New Nigeria People’s Party have described the ruling APC’s strategy as empty, saying it will not translate into victory.

Speaking with our correspondent, the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the APC was “living in self-deception.”

He argued that the party’s declining popularity and poor governance record had alienated it from the people.

“They (APC) are just deluding themselves. They know they have lost the people. That is why they are trying to create the impression that they have control of more states,” he said.

Abdullahi noted that even the APC National Chairman had publicly admitted that many governors in the party had failed to deliver good governance despite unprecedented revenue inflows.

“Even their chairman recently said the governors have not governed well and that the people should hold them accountable. These governors have collected more money than most governments in Nigeria’s history, but there is hardly anything to show for it,” he stated.

Abdullahi questioned the ruling party’s confidence in its governors, describing them as political liabilities rather than electoral assets.

“Is it the same governors they are banking on to win the next election? How many of them can stand before their people and convince them where to go?” he asked.

Abdullahi also dismissed the wave of defections to the APC, saying such moves were driven by personal ambition, not genuine support for the party’s ideals.

“Those governors joining their party know why they are doing so. It is not because they believe in the APC. We are not worried about them at all,” he said.

The ADC spokesman maintained that the 2027 elections would be determined by the people’s experiences under the current administration, not by political alignments or state-capture tactics.

Similarly, the PDP accused the APC of attempting to stifle opposition ahead of the 2027 general elections, warning that such a strategy threatened Nigeria’s democratic principles.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, condemned the ruling party’s approach.

He said, “The APC is trying to make sure that many of the opposition parties do not have candidates in the 2027 election, and this is not good for our democracy.”

He stressed that opposition parties play a crucial role in strengthening democratic governance and must not be allowed to “die.”

Ememobong also criticised the APC for what it described as actions that “obfuscate the political oxygen” necessary for a healthy political environment.

“The ruling party should allow the people to be the ultimate determinant of the party they want in power. The beauty of democracy is having viable, different political parties engaging in healthy competition,” he said.

On its part, the NNPP said the APC would lose the 2027 elections despite the growing number of governors and political heavyweights within the party.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of the NNPP, Ladipo Johnson, said the 2027 election would be a contest between the people and the APC.

He criticised governors who switch parties amid widespread economic hardship, noting that many Nigerians struggle to afford basic medical care.

“Knowing the APC and those who are there, one is not surprised that they will do anything possible to try to win elections. However, having all the governors does not guarantee victory. What will determine the election is whether the people of Nigeria will rise, organise themselves and defeat the APC at the polls.

“Even if people intend to rig and are taking steps towards it, when they are confronted with massive voter turnout, it becomes more difficult and even impossible. It will be clear to the world when any announced result runs contrary to the votes and mandates of the people.

“So, 2027 is going to be an election between the people of Nigeria and those they see as despotic or as winning and dining at the expense of the people. For every governor that defects, the people increasingly tag politicians as being against them. They are just doing what they want.

“They do not care about the people. How do you explain a governor defecting to the ruling party when people cannot afford basic medical drugs, the cost of medication or hospital care?

“The opposition stands a chance of defeating the APC in 2027 because there is still time to organise and take the fight to the APC. The election will be the people against the APC. The people themselves will speak,” Johnson said.

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