2027: Fubara’s defection throws new issues in struggle for Rivers

By Andrew Agbese, Saawua Terzungwe, Baba Martins (Abuja)  & Bassey Willie (Port Harcourt)

Rivers State is one of the states that can be termed a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) state without fear of contradiction because since 1999, the people have always voted overwhelmingly for the party in almost all the cycles of elections.

At a time the state was seen as the bastion of the PDP due to its constant return of the party’s candidates from the wards to the local government councils; state and National Assembly elections to governorship and presidential elections.

From Peter Odili to Celestine Omehia to Rotimi Amaechi to Nyesom Wike and now Siminalayi Fubara, the state has never left anyone in doubt as to where its sympathy lies when it comes to choice of political party.

Analysts recall that when the PDP was at the helm of affairs at the centre, Rivers usually supplied the difference in terms of the margin of votes to secure a comfortable lead for its presidential candidates.

To prove that the people’s votes were for the party and not necessarily for the candidates, an analyst recalled that when Rotimi Amaechi as sitting governor defected to the APC and brought Dakuku Peterside as the candidate, the people still voted for Wike who was the PDP candidate.

Majority of the people in the state refused to move with Amaechi but voted the PDP both in the governorship and presidential elections even without the power of incumbency at the state level.

In the last governorship election, Fubara as the PDP  candidate, defeated his closest rival, Tonye Cole, of the APC with 302, 614 votes as against the 95,274 votes recorded for the latter.

But for the first time, the PDP lost in the presidential election, with the APC polling 231,591, while the Labour Party scored 175,071 and the Peoples Democratic Party, came third with 88,468 in 2023.

How PDP began to lose grounds in Rivers

The change has its roots in the altercation between the then governor, Wike, who led other governors to rebel against the party and to declare publicly that they would not be supporting the presidential candidate of their party, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, in the general elections.

Wike doubled down on his resolve when he accepted to serve as minister in the APC-led government; a development which deepened the crisis in the PDP as leaders of the party began to work at cross purposes.

Observers recall that Wike himself had been a big beneficiary of the PDP platform having served as a local government chairman, chief of staff to a governor, minister and two-term governor on the platform of the party.

Since his open support for President Tinubu, however, he has made it difficult for the PDP to breath enough air to sustain its existence at the national level, which also affected the strength of the party in Rivers, as his body language showed that he was more at home with the APC while his body remained in the PDP.

This and other issues led him into a squabble with the state governor who felt he was being bullied and not allowed to assert his authority as the executive governor of the state.

Members of the state assembly, apparently reading the body language of the FCT minister, declared they were defecting to the APC but retraced their steps when it became an issue for the governor to exploit in declaring their seats vacant.

The once firm and strong PDP became so insecure that it had to use the platform of another party to sponsor its candidates during the local government elections conducted by Fubara, though the outcome was later nullified by the court.

Keen observers have noticed that since the parting of ways of Wike with the PDP leaders, culminating in the holding of a national convention in Ibadan, that the party has not remained the same again in Rivers .

On Friday, 17 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly loyal to Wike defected to the APC, and just as many were wondering where that would leave Fubara and his supporters, the governor on Tuesday also announced his defection to the same party.

Fubara’s defection has ended months of speculation, that he was dumping the PDP that sponsored him in the election, as he has been having a running disagreement with the members of the House of Assembly led by the Speaker, Martins Amaewhule, who are believed to be loyal to Wike.

Also, on Monday, elected local government officials from both the PDP and APC declared support for President Tinubu and endorsed him for a second term.

Governor Fubara had on Monday evening met with President Tinubu at the State House shortly after the president met with some APC governors, a move many political stakeholders in the state believe was to perfect the governor’s move to APC.

He announced his defection while addressing stakeholders at a meeting held at the Government House, Port Harcourt, on Tuesday evening, saying it was better for the state to move to APC.

The defection did not come as a surprise to many political observers, especially as the governor did not publicly acknowledge the efforts of PDP governors who went to court over the federal government’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State between March 18 and September 18, and the subsequent suspension of the governor, his deputy and the 32-member House of Assembly.

He said: “You are aware that I went to see Mr President yesterday, and the reason that I went for the visit is not just a personal visit, but a state-interest consultation. I don’t want to make any mistake this time around, I wish not to also step on any landmines that anyone will leave for us.

“The reason we are still standing is because of that place, without Mr President, there won’t be any His Excellency, Siminalayi Fubara, it would have been former governor. So, we have every reason, let nobody be fooled in this state, we have the people, we have the supporters and we stand with Mr President to support him, and we can’t support Mr President if we don’t fully identify with him; not backyard support.”

It’s a case of self-inflicted injury – PDP

In a  swift reaction, the National Working Committee (NWC) of the PDP described the news of Fubara’s defection to the APC as a case of self-inflicted injury.

The main opposition party also said that with the unrelenting disposition of the “ruling party towards the attainment of a one-party state, and the constriction of the political space, democracy is under severe attack in Nigeria.”

Comrade Ini Ememobong, National Publicity Secretary of the PDP. said the defection: “As pitiful as it is, is an exemplar of the old legal maxim, Volenti non fit injuria, meaning “to one who is willing, no harm can be done”.

The PDP spokesman said everyone who had followed the developments that culminated in this uneventful defection would recall that the governor willingly travelled the path that took him to this destination.

Defection positions Fubara for 2027 – Analyst

A political analyst, Jackson Lekan Ojo, has described Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s defection as a major turning point that could secure his political future ahead of the 2027 elections.

In a telephone interview with Daily Trust last night, Ojo said the governor’s move was not only strategic, but necessary, given the political dynamics and previous agreements that had constrained him.

He said Fubara had been weighed down by an “unpopular agreement” reached during the height of the political crisis in the state.

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