Awoof, defections, and myth of the master strategist

The people are clearly not happy with this government. Living conditions are deteriorating due to government policies. There is no potable water, power is unstable, communities are insecure, job opportunities are decreasing, and food has become very expensive because people’s incomes cannot pay for it.

In short, citizens are facing an affordability crisis. And, rightly so, people blame the government policies for their troubles. However, the government seems only worried about re-election, rather than changing the present situation. Party members and supporters of the master strategist believe he has a political strategy that can win them the 2027 elections.

Whenever I hear his sycophants say he understands politics and that he is a “master strategist”, it reminds me of Nkem Owoh’s song, “I Go Chop Your Dollar.” As many would say, Nigerians love awoof. After all, it is “our money”.

Some of the lyrics go like this: “Poverty no good at all, no; Na ’im make I join this business; If anybody fall mugu; Ha! My brother, I go chop ’am…”

In recent months, governors and lawmakers have defected en masse to his party. Just this week, another northern governor joined them, along with many lawmakers. This brought their total to 29 out of 36 governors. Not bad, if politics were judged on paper. Too bad elections only happen at the polling unit.

There are various allegations explaining these defections. In Delta State, the case reportedly involved EFCC pressure against a former governor. The allegation is that prosecution was dropped once the serving and former governors defected. If this is true, such politicians would see themselves as captives. They would comply for now, but bite back when it suits them. 2027 would be the natural moment. This will hold for everyone in this situation. Yes, at the moment, they will sing his praises and even engage in sycophancy, but it will all be in pretence and mockery. They will not forget how they were groomed.

Then there are alleged inducements, said to run into billions of naira. Rational politicians know this is tempting. One explanation for this desperation, especially in the North and South East, is that the master strategist is politically limited. The defectors know this. They simply want access to federal funds. They offer the illusion that they can deliver votes. The reality is different.

Many will agree with my theory that these decampees are basically applying Nkem Owoh’s rule: “Master strategist, I go chop your dollar. Politics is just a game. You be the mugu, I be the master…”

Reality tells a different story. We have seen incumbent governors lose power. The memories of Zamfara, Osun and Adamawa are still fresh. We have seen parties lose their states to the opposition, including Sokoto, Plateau, Kano, Abia, and Edo, among others. We have even seen Lagos vote in a different direction from its traditional one. The defectors know this. So does the master strategist.

Yet he has few options. He dangles federal might before politicians fighting for survival. Federal might here means money and, allegedly, favours from law enforcement, INEC and the courts. In return, he expects voter mobilisation. But voters are angry—with governors, with their lawmakers, with the centre, and with the country’s direction. The incumbent party has never been as unpopular as it is now, especially in deprived areas of the North and the South East.

As the saying goes, you cannot fool all the people all the time. Despite federal might, the master strategist still struggles nationally.

Despite boasting of 29 governors and the majority of lawmakers, there is still no clear pathway to victory in the 2027 elections. But they will not want you to say this out loud, because it will make them look dubious. No, they are not. They are just politicians; they do not have to hold up their end of the bargain. After all, the master strategist discarded a few others who helped him to power. Knowing this fact, these politicians have no option but to cling to the illusion that manipulating the election results in their favour is within the realm of possibility.

But regardless of the election’s outcome, they now have insurance if manipulating the election results does not work in their favour, because they leave with their dollars in their pockets. This has happened before, in 2015. History may yet rhyme.

And instead of going back in history, we can equally take a look at the efficacy of the master strategist’s strategy now. We criticised the rubber-stamp National Assembly for allowing the “on your mandate” song instead of the National Anthem. A cynical explanation is that it is only by flattering the “mugu” that they will get funding for their constituency projects. This is why they resisted rubber-stamping his unfavourable Tax Bill until it was corrected to accommodate their demands. Let’s not forget the National Assembly is still standing firm on the Tax law alterations. This may not look connected to the naked eye, but it shows that where individual interests differ, agreement will be difficult.

Similarly, over the weekend, one of his ministers went on air to warn the master strategist that replacing the Vice President with someone who is not a Northern Muslim could jeopardise his electoral prospects in 2027. The minister emphasised that those advocating a reshuffle of the ticket do not understand “the reality of the way people think” in the North. Such warnings are only issued to weak leaders or political novices. This is why I emphasise that those who call him the master strategist are making a mockery of him. This exposes the myth.

We may still argue about other possibilities if we all agree that he is a transactional politician, desperately seeking to weaken the opposition and crowd out alternatives to win re-election. But the defecting governors and lawmakers are not naïve; they know what they are doing. They rely on him to order INEC to manipulate the election results in their favour, despite knowing he relies on them to mobilise voters to help him win. The bargain relies on mutual cheating, which makes it unstable. Once votes fail to appear or institutions fail to cooperate, the master strategist’s strategy collapses.

May we live long enough to write this history.

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