The Danger of ‘Ceremonial’ Coups

By Olusegun Adeniyi

It is becoming increasingly clear that what unfolded in Guinea-Bissau last week Wednesday was a brazen drama staged by a desperate presidential incumbent who could read the writing on the wall but was not ready for the people’s verdict. With the election concluded three days earlier and the result being awaited, President Umaro Sissoco Embalo was facing certain defeat, according to most projections. And then he orchestrated what can only be described as Africa’s most transparent attempt at electoral theft through military subterfuge. The script was so poorly written that even foreign election observers saw through it immediately. A former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who was in the country to monitor the polls, has aptly described what happened as a ‘ceremonial coup’.

It all started with a screaming headline from a French media outlet. “‘I have been deposed,’ Guinea-Bissau’s Embalo tells FRANCE 24.” According to the online report, Embalo had granted an exclusive phone call with FRANCE 24 where he announced being toppled, while also telling the reporters that “he could not talk further without risking his phone being confiscated.” As if this was not strange enough, following what was said to be an asylum negotiation, Embalo left for the Senegalese capital of Dakar where he spent only a few hours before ending up in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo. The reason Embalo hurriedly left Dakar became apparent when the Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko dismissed the whole fiasco in Guinea-Bissau as a “sham” while calling for the conclusion of the electoral process. “We want the electoral process to continue,” Sonko told Senegalese lawmakers last Friday. “The [electoral] commission must be able to declare the winner.”

From Mali to Niger, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Madagascar and now Guinea-Bissau, there have been eight successful military takeovers within the last five years, mostly within the Sahelian ‘Coup Belt’. Apart from the violent jihadist insurgency that has provided a perfect excuse for some military adventurers, the August 2023 overthrow of Gabonese President Ali Bongo was also over a disputed presidential election. But the Guinea-Bissau scenario is completely different. Now, let’s consider the absurdity. A sitting president announces his own overthrow by the military to the international media and hastily assembles junta that installs allies of the supposedly deposed president—his former army chief and finance minister—to run a ‘transitional government.’ If this were not so dangerous to Guinea-Bissau’s democratic aspirations, it would be laughable.

Although Embalo was elected president in 2019 on the platform of an opposition faction that grew out of the then ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC)—founded in 1956 by one of Africa’s foremost anti-colonial leaders, Amilcar Cabral—after a run-off, he prevented PAIGC from presenting a candidate in this election. Despite that, it was still difficult for the retired Brigadier-General who presided over a country globally renowned as Africa’s narco-state to rig the process due to his unpopularity with the people. So, it was convenient for his military stooges to use the drug challenge as an excuse for the coup despite reports that many of their officers are also neck deep in the illicit trade that has turned Guinea-Bissau into one of the most notorious cocaine transport hubs in the world.

Stripped of all pretensions, Embalo’s motive was clear: provisional election results were scheduled for announcement the very next day, and most reports indicated that the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, had won. Rather than face the electoral verdict of his people, Embalo chose to set fire to the constitutional order itself. This is not leadership. It is the desperate flailing of a man who would rather destroy his country’s democratic institutions than accept electoral defeat.

The fast-shrinking Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) have rightly suspended Guinea-Bissau and condemned this charade. But condemnation is not enough. These regional bodies must now demonstrate that they are not the ‘toothless bulldogs’ they are often derided as being. And that they will not tolerate such a transparent manipulation of democratic processes by insisting on the immediate release of the authentic election results. Opposition leaders and election officials who have been arbitrarily detained must be freed immediately. Nigeria must also do everything to ensure the safety of Dias whom we have officially granted asylum and now resident in our embassy in Bissau. And Embalo, who has now fled to Congo after briefly hiding in Senegal, must be held accountable for this assault on democracy.

The people of Guinea-Bissau deserve better than this cynical mockery of their sovereignty. They went to the polls in good faith. Their votes must be counted. And their will must prevail. Anything less would set a catastrophic precedent for the region and signal to every failing autocrat that they too can manufacture an electoral fiasco when the votes are not going their way and then invite their friends in the military to take power rather than accept defeat. That is why this orchestrated coup in Guinea-Bissau is dangerous for the democratic health of our continent. And it must not be allowed to stand.

Digital Predators and Assault on Women

Social media has revolutionized how we communicate, organize, and engage with one another. But this digital revolution has also spawned new forms of violence, especially against women and girls. It is therefore most appropriate that the 2025 edition of 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence has the theme, “Unite to End Digital Violence Against All Women and Girls.” The message is clear: We must turn our gaze to a frontier of abuse that thrives in plain sight yet often escapes serious scrutiny. Nowhere is this more evident than on X (formerly Twitter) which exemplifies the intersection of online harassment and technology-facilitated gender-based violence (TFGBV).

Although my social media presence is marginal, and it is deliberate, I have some young friends who keep me abreast of trending issues. I am therefore aware of the notorious Killjoy ‘Chief’ on X who has made a troubling habit of inserting himself into every conversation involving ladies who are about to get married. Going by his various claims, he must have slept with all the women and girls in Nigeria. This pattern of behaviour, repeated across numerous posts and threads, represents far more than crude boastfulness or poor social media etiquette. It is, in fact, a form of digital violence that carries serious implications for the women targeted, whether named or implied, and for our society’s broader approach to their safety in online spaces.

We must understand that the harm caused by such behaviour extends far beyond the immediate targets. Every woman or girl who witnesses this pattern of harassment receives a clear message about the risks of online participation. Every young person who sees such conduct go unchallenged learns that this is acceptable behaviour, that women’s dignity is negotiable and that reputation destruction is just another form of online entertainment. This is dangerous. The wounds from such reckless posts may be less visible, but they are no less real. The scars may be digital, but they mark lives and limit possibilities just as surely as physical assault.

What makes this behaviour particularly insidious is how it weaponizes the very architecture of social media platforms. Each claim becomes permanently searchable and shareable. The comments live on in digital perpetuity, creating a form of reputational violence that can affect women’s professional opportunities, personal relationships, and mental health. In Nigeria’s conservative social context where a woman’s perceived sexual conduct can determine everything from marriage prospects to career advancement, such public declarations whether true or fabricated carry the weight of social assassination.

It should worry us that the traditional forms of gender-based violence have found new expressions online. The same misogyny that manifests in physical spaces where the reputations of women and girls are considered fair game has simply migrated to digital platforms where it can operate with greater reach and impunity. When any woman or girl who posts on social media risks having someone she may never have met claim sexual knowledge of her in the comments section, the message is clear: your voice comes with the price of potential humiliation. This chilling effect on participation in digital spaces represents a direct assault on their freedom of expression and is injurious to the health of society.

Addressing digital violence against our women and girls requires action on multiple fronts We need laws that specifically address TFGBV and can be effectively enforced. This means not only updating statutes but also training law enforcement and judicial officers to take such complaints seriously. While the Violence Against Persons Prohibition (VAPP) Act of 2015 represents progress in recognizing various forms of gender-based violence, its implementation remains inconsistent, and its provisions do not fully capture the nuances of digital harassment. Besides, enforcement of certain provisions has become a tool against critics of powerful individuals than against those who perpetrate online violence against women and girls.

Perhaps the biggest responsibility is with platform companies. They must do more than issue community guidelines. They must invest in robust content moderation, respond promptly to reports of harassment and design their systems to discourage rather than amplify abusive behaviour. The current model, which prioritizes engagement over safety, has proven inadequate to the challenge. Coming back home, we need a cultural shift in how we understand and respond to online harassment. Every time we witness such behaviour and remain silent, we become complicit in normalizing it. Every time we laugh at or engage with posts that demean women and girls, we reinforce the structures that enable digital violence.

The ongoing 16 Days of Activism therefore provides an opportunity for each of us to examine our own online behaviour and to commit to creating digital spaces where women and girls can participate fully, safely, and with dignity.

• You can follow me on my Twitter handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com