Anti-corruption for 2027 election?

Let’s begin with a theory of corruption in Nigeria, one which helps to put current events into sharp relief. In his book, Moral Economies of Corruption: State Formation and Political Culture in Nigeria (2016), the American historian Steven Pierce proposes a compelling theory for understanding both corruption and anti-corruption specifically in the Nigerian context.

Pierce rummages through 150 years of Nigeria’s political and cultural history, from the colonial era to the present, and argues that corruption in Nigeria is essentially what he calls a “political performative”. By this, Pierce means that corruption in Nigeria is not just a series of acts of wrongdoing that illustrate the moral failings of officials involved or the dysfunction of the state. Rather, he argues, corruption in Nigeria is both a legal and linguistic device used selectively but effectively to do politics in the right circumstances. It is not that allegations of corruption against certain persons are fabricated, or that the evidence of wrongdoing does not matter, but that such accusations are a “highly selective political weapon”, deployed primarily for achieving specific political ends, such as removing an official from office.

Pierce’s point is that in Nigeria, politics and the specific political objectives of various actors in different circumstances can drive official investigations and charges of corruption against other persons even more than the need for accountability. In this sense, a public official can be removed from their office on charges of corruption even when corrupt practices by other officials persist elsewhere in government and are known to the authorities. Anti-corruption in Nigeria, by this argument, can often follow more political-instrumental logic of how it is used and what is used to achieve, than merely the stated logic of reducing corruption in the country.

Some officials can go scot-free for the same or similar offences others are investigated, arrested or charged to court for. When businessman Aliko Dangote recently, and rightly, blew the whistle on the lavish and quite possibly unearned lifestyle of the former head of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Ahmed Farouk, as a consequence of which the latter was removed from office, Dangote’s motivations may well go beyond merely to help reduce corruption in the oil industry, even accountability reasons were also there. We can suppose that Dangote knows more about corruption in the oil industry and the wider economy than only what is happening at the NMDPRA.

Of course, there are similar cases of some-go-free and some-are-charged aplenty in the history of corruption and anti-corruption in Nigeria. During 2005-2007, for example, many of the governors who were hounded for corruption also happened to be, at least in their own words, those who claimed to have been opposed to then President Obasanjo’s rumoured Third Term ambition. Former Minister of Finance, Kemi Adeosun was removed from office for allegedly forging her NYSC certificate midway into late President Buhari’s first term. But at the same time, Adebayo Shittu, then Minister of Communications in the same cabinet, was reportedly accused of the same offence, but he served out his term. And these are just a few examples.

Now, no theoretical model maps social reality exactly, and many factors determine the outcomes of anti-corruption activity, such as weak evidence, court delays, and the like. But when I look at the spate of investigations, arrests, and detentions of high-profile persons over charges of corruption in recent years, I am reminded of Pierce’s theory of corruption as a political performative in Nigeria. The patterns are certainly strong enough to merit scrutiny.

Consider, for example, that a striking proportion of recent high-profile anti-corruption cases that have been pursued by the leading anti-corruption agencies happen to be against the government’s political opponents at one time or another, from former Governor of the Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele—one of the earliest cases under this administration—to former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, whose case is one of the latest and most dramatic.

In between these are cases against former Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi state, former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, former Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami, former head of the National Health Insurance Scheme, Professor Usman Yusuf, current Kano State Director of Protocol, Abdullahi Rogo, etc. All of these accused persons are at one time or another associated with opposition parties or openly criticised the government.

Emefiele was a direct opponent of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during the 2023 APC election, even if his candidacy was a reckless abuse of power and due process (I wrote against Emefiele’s not-so-hidden presidential ambition at the time). Yahaya Bello was an arrowhead of the anti-Tinubu camp in that primary. Okowa was the opposition PDP presidential running mate in that election. Yusuf has been a fierce critic of all governments, including the current one, and it was quite telling that a nearly forgotten case was resurrected against him. Tambuwal, Malami, and El-Rufai are leading figures of the ADC while Mohammed is PDP.

Consider also the patterns of those high-profile cases that have been reported in the media in recent years. On the one hand, cases involving accused persons who have decamped to the ruling APC or otherwise not giving the government any troubles have become dormant or inactive. Examples here include Yahaya Bello, Okowa, Rogo, etc, while cases against real or perceived opponents are active and are being dragged around from one court or detention centre to another. Examples of these include Bala Mohammed, Malami, Yusuf, El-Rufai, etc. the timing of Malami’s case is also curious because it is only when he moved from the APC to the ADC to challenge for the Kebbi State governorship that his corruption cases shot up.

On the other hand, persons involved in previous or current cases of alleged corruption have not been formally charged. A good example of this pattern is the case of former Governor of Kano State, Dr Umar Abdullahi Ganduje, who was reportedly caught on video stuffing dollars in his pocket. Allegations of corruption have also been raised in the news against the former Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL, Mele Kyari, but the case appears to have gone dormant also. And then, there is the recent case of Ahmed Farouk, the removed chief executive of the NMDPRA, whose case played out publicly, but to date hardly any official effort to investigative further, let alone bring formal charges.

All of these raise serious questions about whether the current patterns of anti-corruption activity in Nigeria are part of a strategy to intimidate, discredit and distract opposition figures in order to help the incumbent government, party and president to win the 2027 elections. These questions cannot be swept under the carpet or ignored because the patterns of recent anti-corruption activities are increasingly sticking out as strange or anomalous.

This brings us to the elephant in the room. I have never met Malam Nasir El-Rufai in my life, although as a journalist, I would be happy to interview him some day, as I would be given the opportunity to interview many other political figures of the day, including President Tinubu. However, I am not convinced that his recent arrest and detention by multiple anti-corruption agencies have much to do with fighting corruption. Rather, they appear to be heavily politically motivated either by design or by the timing. And that, Nigerians must reject as unacceptable.

None of the foregoing is an advocacy for corrupt officials to go free. No. All persons must answer for the cases against them. But the patterns of anti-corruption activity so far described is by now unmistakable and undeniable, and they do not bode well for our democracy or for reducing corruption in Nigeria. Particularly instructive is that using state power and resources to do personal political battles or harass political opponents are the very things President Tinubu said he fought against early in his political career. How sad an irony that much the same things now appear to be happening under his own democratically elected government.

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