Analysts forecast 4.5% Q4 economic growth

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Analysts at Afrinvest have projected that Nigeria’s economy could expand by 4.3 to 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by seasonal factors, improved foreign exchange supply, and stronger consumer spending, according to macroeconomic projections.

According to its weekly update, this outlook follows the release of the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product report by the National Bureau of Statistics, which showed that the country’s real output grew by 4.0 per cent year-on-year in Q3 2025. While this represents a slight moderation compared with 4.2 per cent growth in Q2 2025, it outperformed the 3.9 per cent expansion recorded in Q3 2024.

“Looking ahead to Q4 2025, we estimate a base-case GDP growth range of 4.3 per cent to 4.5 per cent, underpinned by seasonal drivers, including a late harvest cycle and stronger consumer spending associated with year-end festivities, which should provide near-term support. Improved FX supply and gradual softening of price pressure are also expected to lift business sentiment. However, the operating environment remains challenging. Uncertain crude oil output, fiscal constraints, heightened security concerns, and still-restrictive monetary conditions could limit the extent of the expansion, particularly through their impact on credit growth and investor confidence.”

Nominal GDP reached N113.6tn, up from N96.2tn in the same period last year, reflecting an 18.1 per cent increase year on year, largely driven by price-level changes. Growth was supported by both the oil and non-oil sectors, although oil accounted for just 3.4 per cent of total GDP compared with 96.6 per cent from non-oil activities.

The oil sector expanded by 5.8 per cent year on year, aided by stable but slightly declining crude oil output. Average production stood at 1.64 million barrels per day in Q3 2025, down from 1.68mbpd in Q2 2025, but above 1.47mbpd in Q3 2024. Despite these gains, the sector’s contribution to total GDP remained modest at 3.4 per cent. Analysts noted that the performance reflects steady upstream production and continued efforts to curb crude oil theft.

Among the three main sectors, agriculture grew by 3.8 per cent year on year, benefiting from the main harvest season and rising export earnings for cash and food crops. The industrial sector, excluding oil, expanded by 3.2 per cent, showing a slowdown relative to previous quarters. Services led the non-oil economy with 4.2 per cent growth, driven by ICT, financial services, and real estate. Within these, trade grew 2.0 per cent, supported by FX stability and improved consumer purchasing power, while real estate eased to 3.5 per cent from 3.8 per cent in Q2 2025, reflecting weaker demand in the sector.

Economists said that while overall growth remains robust, the moderation in key sectors signals slower momentum, particularly in industry. “The non-oil economy continues to anchor growth, demonstrating resilience and structural diversification despite challenges in some sectors,” said a senior economist at a Lagos-based consultancy who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Aina is a budding reporter with over a year experience covering crime, court and city for Metro.

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