2027 gov’ship race: Can Senator Buba Shehu win Bauchi?

As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, the political temperature across the Northeast is steadily rising. Of the six states in the region, the All-Progressives Congress (APC) currently governs four, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe,while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) controls Adamawa and Bauchi. For the APC, reclaiming Bauchi is not merely a state contest; it is a strategic necessity in consolidating dominance in the Northeast.

Political analysts often remind us that all politics is local. Nowhere is this truer than in Bauchi State, where history, identity, and grassroots connection frequently outweigh elite credentials and federal influence. As the race for 2027 gathers momentum, the central question is not just whether the APC can win Bauchi, but who within the party has the capacity to deliver that victory.

Within the Bauchi APC, the contest is shaping up as a high-stakes battleground involving heavyweight figures: Minister of Health, Professor Muhammad Ali Pate; Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar; Senator Shehu Buba Umar of Bauchi South; and former NAPIMS Managing Director, Alhaji Bala Wunti. Each brings distinct strengths, yet Bauchi’s political history suggests that not all strengths translate into electoral success.

Bauchi’s politics is unique, even by Nigerian standards. Since 1999, power has changed hands regularly after eight years, as seen in the transitions from Adamu Mu’azu to Isa Yuguda, and later to Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar. This swinging pattern reflects a politically conscious electorate shaped by the enduring NEPU legacy, the sensitive Katagum–Bauchi balance, and an unwavering demand for grassroots leadership.

While Professor Ali Pate boasts international exposure and technocratic depth, his political challenge lies at home. Among many Bauchi voters, he is perceived as distant from local political struggles, earning the nickname “Wakilin Turawa”, a subtle but powerful reflection of weak grassroots resonance. Similarly, Alhaji Bala Wunti is widely regarded as competent and capable, yet Bauchi APC’s recent history with political newcomers raises red flags. In 2023, Air Vice Marshal Saddique Abubakar emerged suddenly to clinch the party ticket, only to suffer a resounding defeat at the polls. A similar pattern played out in 2015 when M.A. Abubakar rode the Buhari wave to victory but failed to secure a second term in 2019.

Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, though a seasoned political actor, faces another challenge common in Bauchi politics: perceived aloofness from the grassroots. In a state where political success depends on daily engagement with local realities, distance; real or imagined, can be costly.

Against this backdrop, Senator Shehu Buba Umar stands out as a politically grounded contender. Several critical factors tilt the scale in his favour. Notably, all Bauchi governors since 1999 have emerged from Bauchi South, aligning squarely with Senator Buba’s constituency. The enduring Katagum–Bauchi political factor further strengthens his position, as does his deep-rooted grassroots network across the state.

More importantly, Senator Buba is widely viewed as the only aspirant within the APC with the political reach and local acceptance required to confront and defeat an incumbent party. His long-standing engagement with party structures, traditional institutions, and grassroots actors has earned him the quiet support of many political stakeholders. In Bauchi, where elections are often won long before polling day through alliances and local trust, this advantage cannot be overstated.

It is therefore unsurprising that many observers believe the APC leadership, at state, national, and presidential levels, may ultimately rally around Senator Buba Shehu Umar. In a highly competitive state like Bauchi, emotion must give way to strategy, and strategy demands choosing a candidate who aligns with the state’s political realities.

For the APC, winning Bauchi in 2027 is part of a broader objective: securing all six Northeast states in both the gubernatorial and presidential elections. Achieving this requires a deliberate, state-by-state approach that prioritizes grassroots candidates and addresses genuine local agitations. In Bauchi, the choice of governorship candidate will not only determine the fate of the state election but could significantly influence the party’s presidential performance.

As history has repeatedly shown, Bauchi does not reward political experiments. It rewards familiarity, structure, and grassroots connection. In that equation, Senator Shehu Buba Umar appears not just as a contender, but as the APC’s most viable pathway to victory in 2027.

Zayyad Mohammed wrote from Abuja.

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