World Bank: Reconstruction, Recovery in Ukraine to Cost $588bn over Ten Years

Ndubuisi Francis

Four years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank Group has disclosed that an updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) released Monday by it, the Government of Ukraine, and the European Commission, and the United Nations put the estimated total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraineas of December 31, 2025 at about $588 billion (over €500 billion), over the next decade.The amount is nearly three times the estimated nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine for 2025.The latest update presents an overview of nearly four years of impact, covering 46 months between February 2022 and December 2025.Findings indicate that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached over $195 billion (€166 billion), up from $176 billion (€150 billion) in the RDNA4 of February 2025, with housing, transport, and energy sectors being most affected.The findings highlight the expanding footprint of destruction and the increasing complexity in restoring systems essential for economic recovery and social well‑beingDamage, losses, and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas.The WBG stated that with the support of development partners, Ukraine is taking significant steps to meet recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2026, including public investment projects and essential recovery support programs such as funding for destroyed housing, demining, and multisector economic support programmes, totaling over $15 billion.The global development institution stated that in addition, per the available information collected under the RDNA assessment, at least $20 billion in needs have already been met since February 2022 through urgent repairs and early recovery activities in housing, energy, education, transport, and other essential sectors.“Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the total cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery is now estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade, nearly three times the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2025,” noted Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko.“Amid unprecedented Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, our people show resilience, our entrepreneurs keep working. We still manage to recover fast and develop further. I thank the World Bank, EU, and UN teams for supporting our efforts to stand against the challenges.“The assistance helps us urgently repair our critical infrastructure to keep the country running as well as continue systematic recovery activities focusing on energy projects and housing for our people.”In the energy sector, which has been subjected to increased attacks as Ukraine endures a winter of record intensity, there has been an approximately 21 per cent increase in damaged or destroyed assets since the RDNA4, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure, and district heating.In the transport sector, needs have increased by around 24 percent since RDNA4 and are the result of intensified attacks on rail and ports during 2025. As of December 31, 2025, 14 percent of housing has been damaged or destroyed, impacting over three million households.“Despite the widespread damage that continues to mount against Ukraine’s people, economy and infrastructure, the entire country continues to press on with remarkable strength and resolve.“The World Bank Group stands firmly committed to supporting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction and helping to advance the people of Ukraine with jobs, opportunities and hope in a resilient, modern, and competitive economy,”said World Bank Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde.Ukraine’s private sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of unprecedented disruption and will play a critical role in recovery and reconstruction. The RDNA5 underscores that unlocking the full potential of private investment—both domestic and international—will depend on sustained reforms to improve the business environment, strengthen competition, expand access to finance, address labor constraints, and align production with EU green and digital standards.Promoting sustainable and inclusive development and job creation, and integrated approaches to resilient recovery at the local level—such as through the Government’s pilot Comprehensive Restoration program—will also be essential. The RDNA5 findings complement the reform and investment agenda of the Ukraine Facility, grounded in the EU accession process, for the next two years.“Russia’s war of aggression has brought destruction unseen in generations,” said EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. “This assessment shows the scale of the challenge and the opportunity before us. Our response is clear: we will rebuild Ukraine as a strong, modern EU country. Through bold reforms and the Ukraine Investment Framework as our tools to mobilize investments at scale, we will transform devastation into prosperity and advance Ukraine’s path to the EU.” *Of the total long-term needs, reconstruction and recovery needs are the highest in the transport sector (over $96 billion (€82 billion)).This is followed by the energy sector (nearly $91 billion (€77 billion)), the housing sector (almost $90 billion (€77 billion)), commerce and industry sector (over $63 billion (€54 billion)), and agriculture sector (over $55 billion (€47 billion)). The cost of explosives hazard management and debris clearance is almost $28 billion (€24 billion), despite some progress in surveying and demining that helped to contain losses in this sector.“People are central to recovery,” said Matthias Schmale, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine. “Ukraine’s most critical asset is its people. Refugee return, veteran reintegration, and women’s labor force participation will shape economic recovery as much as capital flows and rebuilding infrastructure. Recovery must be human-centered and community-based.”