2027: Opposition’s unpreparedness seen brightening Tinubu’s re-election chances

As Nigeria gradually edges towards the 2027 general election, the political space is already alive with intense calculations, shifting alliances and subtle manoeuvres that signal an early start to what promises to be a fiercely-contested race.

Although the next presidential poll is still a year away, the tempo of activities across party lines suggests that many actors have already fixed their gaze firmly on Aso Rock.

At the centre of this unfolding drama is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. If he chooses to run, Tinubu will be seeking a second term, and the key question dominating political discourse is whether a fragmented but restless opposition can successfully unseat him.

Analysts are of the view that the answer is far from straightforward, shaped by a complex mix of governance performance, opposition unity, voter sentiment and the enduring advantages of incumbency.

Since assuming office on May 29, 2023, Tinubu has faced relentless criticism from opposition leaders, many of whom were his rivals in the last presidential election. They accuse his administration of worsening insecurity, deepening poverty, spiralling inflation and an unprecedented rise in the cost of living.

The hardship, critics argue, has been exacerbated by far-reaching reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange regime.

BusinessDay reports that while these policies have been defended by the government as painful but necessary steps to stabilise the economy, they have also fuelled public frustration, creating fertile grounds for opposition mobilisation.

Yet, despite the growing discontent in parts of the country, the opposition’s capacity to convert anger into a coherent electoral force remains uncertain.

In May 2025, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) moved swiftly to assert its confidence in the president. At its summit in Abuja, the party passed a vote of confidence in Tinubu and adopted him as its preferred candidate for the 2027 election, even though he has not formally declared his intention to seek re-election.

Party insiders described the move as both symbolic and strategic; a show of unity meant to strengthen internal cohesion while sending a clear signal to rivals that the APC was closing ranks early.

Many observers believe the decision was also aimed at unsettling an opposition that had begun early consultations and realignments in a bid to dislodge the president.

Party officials told BusinessDay that by rallying around Tinubu ahead of time, the APC hopes to minimise internal dissent and present a united front long before the campaign season officially begins.

Read also: 2027: South East APC governors, leaders, stakeholders root for Tinubu

The ADC gamble and opposition realignment

On the opposition side, the most significant development has been the coalescing of disparate political forces around the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The party has emerged as the preferred platform for a broad coalition seeking to challenge Tinubu in 2027.

A major boost to this effort came on November 24, 2025, when former Vice President Atiku Abubakar formally joined the ADC. Atiku, who has contested the presidency multiple times, said his defection was part of a wider mission to rescue Nigeria from what he described as poor governance and democratic decline.

His exit from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), on the platform of which he served as vice president between 1999 and 2007 and ran for president in 2019 and 2023, followed months of internal wrangling. Atiku cited irreconcilable differences and what he called a departure from the party’s founding ideals as reasons for his decision.

The opposition momentum gained further traction on December 31, 2025, when Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, also defected to the ADC.

In a New Year address in Enugu, Obi called for a broad-based national coalition to confront Nigeria’s worsening socio-economic conditions, urging members of the Obidient Movement and other opposition groups to unite under a single banner.

Other prominent figures linked to the ADC include former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi; ex-Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal; and former APC national chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun.

On paper, analysts say, this constellation of political heavyweights brings experience, name recognition and a degree of national spread that could pose a serious challenge to the ruling party.

Yet, even within opposition circles, there is caution against excessive optimism. George Moghalu, the Labour Party’s governorship candidate in the November Anambra State election, had said that unseating President Tinubu in 2027 would be an uphill task.

Speaking with journalists in Abuja, Moghalu stressed that only a united, disciplined and selfless opposition can mount a credible challenge against an incumbent president.

Drawing from Nigeria’s political history, he noted that fragmented opposition forces have consistently failed to dislodge sitting governments.

“Removing an incumbent is not a tea party. The only way to present a formidable alternative is through unity of purpose among opposition parties and leaders,” he said.

Also, Chief Martins Onovo, former presidential candidate of the defunct National Conscience Party (NCP), echoed similar sentiments in a telephone chat with BusinessDay.

He argued that opposition unity, coupled with the emergence of a strong and widely acceptable candidate, would be critical to defeating Tinubu in 2027. Without cohesion and a clear vision, he warned, any coalition would struggle to gain nationwide traction.

The question of candidate and ambition

Ironically, analysts say the ADC’s growing strength could also become its biggest weakness. Atiku and Obi are widely regarded as front-runners for the party’s presidential ticket, while Rotimi Amaechi has also hinted at interest.

The party is yet to zone its ticket to either the North or South, leaving the field open for intense internal competition.

Both Obi and Amaechi, who hail from the South, have publicly indicated that they would be willing to serve only one term if elected, ostensibly to complete what they describe as the South’s remaining four years should Tinubu be defeated after a single term.

Atiku, from the North, has made no such commitment, fuelling concerns among some southern stakeholders about power rotation and equity. Political pundits warn that if these competing ambitions are not carefully managed, they could trigger internal crises, post-primary litigations and defections, patterns that have historically weakened opposition coalitions in Nigeria.

APGA and quiet support for Tinubu

While the ADC works to consolidate opposition forces, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) appears increasingly aligned with the incumbent president.

During Tinubu’s visit to Anambra State last year, Governor Charles Soludo reaffirmed APGA’s long-standing tradition of supporting the party in power, citing both ideological pragmatism and a personal relationship with the president.

APGA’s National Chairman, Sylvester Ezeokenwa, later said that during a press conference in Abuja, that any formal endorsement of Tinubu for 2027 would be the decision of the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC).

Even so, analysts argue that APGA lacks both the national spread and the inclination to mount a serious presidential challenge, making its support for Tinubu more likely than not.

Opposition parties in turmoil

Beyond the ADC, the opposition landscape is mired in internal crises. The PDP, once Africa’s largest political party, remains deeply divided more than a decade after losing power at the federal level.

Persistent factional battles, often linked to rival camps associated with FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, and Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, have weakened its cohesion and electoral prospects.

The Labour Party, which surprised many with its performance in the 2023 election, has also been engulfed in leadership disputes. These tensions culminated in the defection of Peter Obi and the party’s lone senator, Ireti Kingibe, who earlier announced her defection to the ADC.

The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is likewise at a crossroads. Observers noted growing indications that key figures, particularly in Kano State, are exploring a possible alignment with the APC.

Statements attributed to allies of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf suggest that consultations are ongoing, while the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has hinted that any alliance with the APC would depend on “strong promises” and clear benefits.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) once touted as an alternative platform, is also struggling with internal disagreements, further fragmenting the opposition space.

Tinubu’s record and voter sentiments

Despite opposition disarray, analysts caution that Tinubu’s re-election is not expressly guaranteed. Observers say public frustration over insecurity, inflation, unemployment and rising living costs remains widespread. Civil society groups and opposition leaders continue to accuse the administration of failing to protect lives and improving living standards.

If these challenges persist or worsen, pundits are of the view that they could erode Tinubu’s support base, particularly among urban voters and the youths. They warn that in such a scenario, a united and credible opposition could capitalise on popular discontent.

The APC, however, remains confident. Its National Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, insists that the Tinubu administration will surmount all the challenges before 2027, arguing that ongoing reforms are already laying the foundation for long-term economic stability.

Ibrahim told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that “APC is the party to beat”, insisting that Tinubu will secure landslide victory in a transparent and credible poll in 2027. He expressed confidence that Nigerians would ultimately reward Tinubu with a second term.

Similarly, APC chieftain from Abia State, Paul Ikonne, has dismissed claims of vulnerability within the ruling party, arguing that the 2027 poll will be a walkover for Tinubu.

A tight race ahead

Political observers say Nigerians are likely to witness an intense battle for presidential power in 2027.

Pundits are of the view that whether or not Tinubu is stoppable in 2027 will depend on several interlocking factors including opposition’s ability to unite behind a single candidate, manage internal ambitions, and articulate a compelling alternative vision for Nigeria.

While the opposition struggles to forge unity and coherence, the ruling party is banking on incumbency, its strength in the National Assembly which has risen beyond two-thirds majority in both chambers and increasing number of its governors following massive defections from the opposition ahead of 2027.

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