Reflections on the opposition coalition

Now that the 2027 election timetable is out, even though the ballot-casting dates are being reconsidered, we need to look at the position of those challenging the ruling party.

It was suggested that all opposition parties form a coalition and unite into a single party to challenge the ruling party. This would mean a two-party system. But we must tell voters the truth; it will be very difficult for this much-anticipated idea to materialise.

Three things remain a problem. The ruling party is trying very hard to destabilise the coalition through the courts and by using law enforcement to intimidate disgruntled politicians. Zoning remains an issue. And silent competition is becoming more important than the collective resolution to unseat the ruling party. These must be addressed.

With just one year to the election, the PDP lacks a standing aspirant they can rally behind. The PDP is also factionalised. The Wike faction, the leadership recognised by INEC, has declared its support for Tinubu’s re-election. This alone creates a tricky path for the idea work. The PDP Turaki-led faction will tell you they want an alliance with the ADC, but they are still waiting for their court case to be resolved. But seriously, who are they kidding? The same courts that recognised the Wike faction, which they claimed to have expelled? Besides, the Wike faction is already planning a convention to complicate things for them.

Whatever it is, the PDP needs to get their act together at the top because it will affect the other members who intend to contest seats in the party. It will be difficult for aspirants to express interest in contesting under an unstable party or one that colludes with the ruling party, the APC. Aspirants will not risk contesting under a faction that INEC will not recognise their candidacy. They will also not risk their credibility by contesting under the faction that colludes with the incumbent party unless they actually are. Besides, the party faces uncertainty about fielding candidates for elections, as seen in Ekiti and Osun.

As for voting preference, the average voter may be desperate for change. They may want anything but APC, but one must not mistake this desperation for stupidity. They can smell gibberish from where they stand. And if they are ever going to vote for change, they will not vote for a party that endorses Tinubu. Those who want continuity would rather vote for the incumbent than risk confusion.

The ideal unity candidate that would have united the opposition is Goodluck Jonathan. He ticks all the boxes for acceptance in this polarised country. But the leadership of his party, the PDP, is unstable. Besides, given that Wike’s faction is the only functional faction within the party, it will not happen as they have vowed to campaign for Tinubu.

ADC equally supports party alliances and coalitions. Like the PDP and LP, the ADC is exempted from fielding candidates for the Rivers by-election due to an internal crisis. But it looks fine in other states.

The ADC strategy is to bring the PDP, NNPP, LP, and the disgruntled APC politicians under one roof. Rightly so, they have seen a decent influx of support as PDP’s uncertainty continues. The party continues to appear to be the home of the united opposition. But its exponential growth has stagnated for different reasons. The party’s online registration process is on ice. The party is facing an internal crisis as well. This is not even about the existing factions, court cases, or the upcoming convention.

At the state level, the ADC leadership crisis remains unresolved, with many states having more than one party chairman. There is suspicion that national stakeholders are colluding with the ruling party. The supporters of various presidential aspirants remain suspicious of one another.

A big chunk of the coalition came from disgruntled or disgraced APC members who were denied the positions they needed to remain politically relevant. This group had flirted with the ADC when the hype was at its height. They made media appearances at various events that energised the public and made the incumbent jittery. Amaechi’s colloquium was one of the key events at which “the who’s who of the coalition members” attended. They have been pushed to formalise their registration with the ADC, but they kept dithering.

At the moment, some disgruntled individuals have left the coalition to rejoin the APC, having recently publicly announced their membership renewals. A few others will be leaving the country after accepting diplomatic positions. It is alleged that they are being threatened. Considering the cases of Emefiele, Malami, and Sirika, one would not be wrong to think they measured the costs and benefits of their association. They must have weighed their chances of fighting DSS operatives at the airport, court cases with the ICPC and EFCC, and surviving in Kiri-Kiri prison, and then decided to crawl back to Aso Rock to seek forgiveness.

There are also other cases of active coalition members vacillating over registering with the ADC coalition. The boring answer to this foot-dragging technique is always “we are consulting.”

One key person who remains on people’s lips is Kwankwaso, and his stock has risen more with the US Congress’s misguided allegations. The opposition would do everything to have him. Nonetheless, he is a man whose political principle is to be transactional. He has stated so on various occasions and has given instances of what he discussed with the ruling party before his protégé governor betrayed him. He is hinting at joining the coalition, but, like others, he is dithering about it. For him, joining the coalition will involve agreeing to contest as either the President or the Vice President.

The two leading southern coalition presidential aspirants—Obi and Amaechi—would welcome Kwankwaso’s transactional proposal. Both have been advocating for the ADC coalition to zone its ticket to the South. However, such an agreement would cast doubt on Atiku’s path to clinching the ADC coalition ticket.

If Atiku fails to clinch the ticket, apathy will prevail across the Northern bloc unless someone like him emerges. Of course, Tambuwal, Saraki, Kwankwaso, Makarfi and a few others will not have trouble whipping the northern voters. And we must consider that the North would rather have Tinubu serve four more years—as bad as he is—than support a potential 8-year term from an unknown southerner.

The twist will come from Obi, who repeatedly said he will run for President in 2027. If he misses the ticket, his followers may also become apathetic. But that could change if he becomes a Vice-Presidential candidate for Atiku or Kwankwaso, but only if they win the ticket. Otherwise, he might have to break ranks to contest elsewhere if another Southerner clinches the ticket. His LP faction, led by Senator Nenadi Usman, makes it easier for him to break from the coalition when needed. Let’s not forget that PDP members are equally flirting with him.

With the election timetable already out, a new strategy is needed to form the united opposition that people imagined. As for the ongoing merry-go-round coalition, the last person to leave that room should switch off the light.

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