Report: Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Policies Driving Drop in Inflation


Nume Ekeghe

Nigeria’s inflation trajectory is showing signs of a decisive turnaround, with a new policy brief stating that reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda are directly driving the sustained moderation in prices and could push inflation into single digits before the end of the year.

Just days after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation slowed to 15.10 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 down sharply from 27.61 per cent in January 2025 and slightly lower than the December 2025 reading, a policy brief by Statehouse Digital Policy and Research described the moderation as a “historic drop,” attributing the sustained disinflationary trend to reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation contracted by 2.88 per cent. The report described this as a “significant deflationary trend, 3.42 per cent lower than Dec 2025, signalling price cooling.”

The document further emphasised that the 12-month data reflect a structural shift rather than a temporary dip. Under a section titled Renewed Hope: The Policy Engine, it stated: “Strategic policies, including removal of trade barriers and agricultural incentives, have directly contributed to the 12-month downward trend in CPI.”

It added, “Data indicates that the administration’s focus on macro-stability is translating into real-world relief for citizens at all income levels.”

Food inflation, long a major pressure points for households, recorded even sharper improvement. Year-on-year food inflation fell to 8.89 per cent, described in the report as a “landmark achievement, down 20.73 per cent from 29.63 per cent in Jan 2025.” On a monthly basis, food inflation declined by 6.02 per cent, marking what it called a “significant monthly decline.”

Key price reductions were recorded in staple commodities such as water yam, eggs, groundnut oil, maize (corn), beef, beans and cassava tubers.

However, inflationary pressures remain uneven across states. Benue posted the highest year-on-year inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 per cent. Ebonyi and Katsina recorded the lowest rates at 8.72 per cent and 8.94 per cent respectively.

Urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year-on-year, compared with 14.44 per cent in rural areas, though the report cautioned that “CPI is weighted by local consumption patterns; direct interstate comparisons can be misleading.”

The report set an ambitious near-term target. Under its outlook section, it projected a move toward a single-digit inflation regime before year-end, stating: “If current monetary tightening and agricultural supports persist, the administration projects a move toward single-digit inflation by Q4 2026.”

The report also noted a “steady decline since early 2025,” arguing that the 12-month series “demonstrates a sustained downward trajectory, validating the medium-term economic strategy.”

However, it noted that while external risks including exchange rate volatility and supply disruptions remain potential headwinds, the data suggests that the disinflation cycle may be gathering momentum, with policymakers betting that consistency in reform execution will anchor price stability more firmly in the months ahead.