CPPE Projects 2026 as Beginning of Robust Growth Phase for Nigeria 

Dike Onwuamaeze

The Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected that 2026 would mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase for Nigeria with tangible improvements in its citizen’s living standards.

The CPPE made this projection yesterday in its “Review of the Nigerian Economy in 2025 and Outlook for 2026.”

The review, which was released by the Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, described 2025 as “a year of macroeconomic stability.”

Yusuf said that since 2025 has laid a solid foundation for macroeconomic stability, “the outlook for 2026 is reassuring, with expectations of stronger growth, easing inflation, improving investor confidence and a gradual shift toward more inclusive expansion.

“If reform momentum is sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed, 2026 could mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards.”

He added that the 2026 economic outlook is that of cautious optimism.

“With reform momentum sustained, Nigeria is expected to transition more decisively from stabilisation to growth.

“GDP growth is projected between 4.0 and 4.5 per cent, supported by continued moderation in inflation and stronger non-oil sector performance,” Yusuf said.

He also said that moderating inflation would strengthen domestic demand and create room for gradual monetary easing, potentially lowering interest rates and stimulating private investment, adding that services, especially telecommunications, finance, construction, real estate and trade, would remain the primary growth engine.

The CPPE said that the year 2025 marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory following the turbulence associated with the early phase of reforms.

It said that “exchange-rate stability emerged as the most visible achievement, with the naira largely trading within the ₦1,440–₦1,500/US$ band.

“Periodic marginal appreciation strengthened business confidence, eased imported inflation and restored predictability to pricing, contracting and investment planning.

The centre noted that inflation decelerated sharply from 24.48 per cent in January to about 14.45 percent by November 2025.

According to the CPPE, the slowdown was supported by currency stability, easing logistics pressures and improving supply conditions.

Several food items and imported consumer goods recorded outright price declines, contributing to improved consumer sentiment and reduced-price volatility.

Yusuf said that these factors have enabled business confidence to strengthen materially.

He said: “The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Index remained positive for most of the year, reflecting improved investor perception and a gradual recovery in corporate profitability.

“Many firms that posted losses in 2024 returned to profit in 2025, underscoring the stabilisation gains.”

Yusuf, however, noted that despite the macroeconomic stabilisation in 2025, the federal government’s fiscal performance has remained weak.

According to him, debt-service obligations continued to constrain fiscal space, undermining budget execution. Revenue underperformance persisted, largely reflecting sub-optimal oil sector performance.

He said: “The 2025 federal budget was anchored on optimistic assumptions of $75 per barrel oil price and production of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd).

“Actual outcomes fell materially short, with average oil prices around $66 per barrel and production closer to 1.66 mbpd.

“Consequently, the projected ₦41 trillion revenue target was significantly missed, leading to weak capital expenditure implementation.”

He observed that in contrast, sub-national governments recorded relatively stronger fiscal outcomes as they experienced improved liquidity, stronger internally generated revenue (IGR) performance and better capital project execution enabled more tangible delivery of infrastructure and social services across several states.

Yusuf said that several downside risks persist despite the improving trajectory.

These risks, according to him, include security challenges, volatile oil prices and production, high energy and logistics costs, pre-election pressures, pushback on tax reform, debt and fiscal pressures.

He said: “Debt service, estimated at over ₦15 trillion in the 2026 appropriation (about 50 per cent of projected revenue, will continue to constrain fiscal space.

“Geopolitical tensions could affect trade flows, commodity prices and capital movements.

Yusuf said that “fiscal and political uncertainties in the pre-election year could heighten risks while emerging resistance may undermine tax revenue expectations for 2026.”