OUTLOOK FOR 2026

As the year preceding the 2027 general election, 2026 is set to be a politically charged year, as issues ranging from insecurity and the judiciary to political will define the direction of Nigeria’s next leadership.

US and Nigeria’s Security Cooperation

How Nigeria and the United States sustain their cooperation in the fight against terrorism will play a significant role in shaping the country’s security outlook in 2026. On December 25, 2025, the United States military carried out precision airstrikes on terrorist targets in Nigeria’s North-West, following security coordination between both countries.

Ahead of the mission, the United States President Donald Trump had threatened to come into Nigeria ‘guns blazing’ to destroy Islamic terrorists, who have been killing Nigerian Christians in their thousands in the past few years. His remarks followed an earlier decision by the US to designate Nigeria as a “country of particular concern” (CPC) over alleged violations of religious freedom, which he described as posing an “existential threat” to Christianity.

Although the Nigerian government rejected these claims, Trump, in collaboration with Nigerian authorities, authorised the US military to carry out airstrikes targeting ISIS-linked militants in the North-western state of Sokoto.

Following what Trump described as a successful operation, reports indicate that the U.S. has expanded its involvement by conducting intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions over the North-east, focusing on militant activity in the Sambisa Forest.

Forest Guards as Game Changer in Fight against Insecurity?

With the nationwide insecurity worsening in 2025 with attacks on military facilities and civilian population, including the return of mass abductions of students by bandits and terrorists, 7,000 youths completed an intensive three-month training programme as Nigerian Forest Guards last December in Borno, Sokoto, Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Kwara, and Kebbi states.

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, stated that they would guard the ungoverned forests and also support the efforts of security agencies to checkmate perpetrators of insecurity.

With the overwhelming security threats which have overstretched the military, police and other conventional security agencies across the country, the Forest Guards are expected to change the game in the fight against insecurity in 2026.

Focus as Political Crisis Looms in Rivers

Despite the return of peace to Rivers State following President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency and the suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Prof. Ngozi Nma Odu, and members of the State House of Assembly from March 18 to September 17, 2025, the Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike and the state lawmakers, who are his loyalists have returned in a renewed battle for political supremacy in the state.

Barely three months after Fubara and the lawmakers returned to office after the end of the emergency rule, the political gladiators in the state are singing war songs, indicating the resumption of hostilities.

Wike is believed to have been unsettled by Fubara’s defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC), which many believe would guarantee him a second term, which the FCT minister has vehemently opposed.

Apparently referring to the governor, Wike recently warned that joining the APC or openly professing loyalty to President Tinubu does not automatically guarantee a second-term ticket.

Also referring to Fubara’s purported promise to run for only one term, Wike insisted that agreements and promises made must be honoured.

On their part, state lawmakers last Tuesday rejected a N100,000 “Christmas gift” allegedly credited to their accounts based on the governor’s directive, describing the transfer as unlawful and unsolicited.

This fresh development in Wike’s camp is an indication of another brewing political crisis in the state in 2026.

All Eyes on INEC in Osun, Ekiti Governorship Elections

On assumption of office, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (NEC), Prof. Joash Amupitan (SAN), declared that elections would be so credible under his watch that losers would congratulate winners.

Amupitan matched his words with actions with the commission’s fair, free and credible conduct of the November 8, 2025, governorship election in Anambra State.

The apparent neutrality of President Bola Tinubu and the ruling APC also facilitated the INEC boss’s ability to conduct the election transparently.

The commission, under the previous leadership, destroyed the credibility of many previous elections by deploying partisan Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) to manipulate the process for the emergence of pre-determined winners against the wishes of the helpless voters.

In many previous governorship elections, compromised INEC officials and security agents bowed to the pressure mounted by governors who flooded the affected states to deliver their party’s candidates.

These INEC officials stayed at the commission’s offices overnight, doctoring the results, while the agents of political parties were forcefully dispersed with teargas by security agents and asked to return the following morning for collation of the doctored results.

But under Amupitan, over 90 per cent of the results of the Anambra election were already uploaded on INEC’s portal as early as 8 pm, while collation continued into the night and early morning hours in a very transparent manner until the final results were declared.

The question now is: Will the APC-led government and other political parties allow the commission a free hand to achieve the same feat in the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states coming up on July 20 and August 8, 2026, respectively?

Charged Political Atmosphere Ahead of 2027 Elections

With the 2027 general election approaching, Nigeria’s political atmosphere will be charged in 2026.

The gale of defections from the opposition parties to the ruling APC in 2025 had raised concerns over Nigeria’s descent into a one-party state.

The chieftains of the opposition parties had accused the ruling APC of using the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and other instruments of the state to coerce governors and other elected officials in opposition parties to defect to APC.

A document was recently circulated in the media, alleging the establishment of a multi-agency task force by the APC-led federal government for a purported programme called ‘Arrest, Detain, Prosecute for Very Important Persons’ (ADP4VIP).

The document claimed that a task force comprising the EFCC, the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) is plotting to target prominent opposition figures aggressively without due process.

Despite the denial by the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, it has continued to create political tension ahead of the 2027 polls.

The APC-led federal government was also accused of having a hand in the leadership crises in the major opposition parties.

Currently, both the PDP and the Labour Party (LP) have two factions each at the national level.

The opposition parties had alleged that President Tinubu and the ruling party were behind the destabilisation of the opposition parties.

This will further raise the country’s political temperature in 2026 as the next general election approaches.

Focus on the Judiciary

2026 will be an interesting year for the judiciary. No doubt all eyes will be on the all-important arm of government due to the heightened political activities that will be witnessed in the country. Not only would political parties conduct their primaries, but there will also be disagreements and disgruntlements from party faithful that could force many to proceed to court.

A precursor to this was the conflicting orders witnessed last year by Nigerians over a contentious convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The National Judicial Council (NJC) must breathe down on judges of the Federal and State Courts; otherwise, they will make the 2027 elections a mockery.

Moreover, Nigerians would not want to see a repetition of the biased judgments delivered by the courts in the cases filed to challenge Ahmad Lawan and Godswill Akpabio, who, after their failed presidential bids, immediately switched to the Senate.