CBN Gov: We inherited a very bad economy

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, says the current administration met an economy that had not only reached a macroeconomic precipice but had already “gone over the cliff,” describing the depth of challenges inherited as unprecedented.

Speaking at the 60th annual dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Cardoso reaffirmed the bank’s determination to drive inflation firmly into single digits, insisting that the current double-digit level “cannot be acceptable” as Nigeria consolidates economic reforms.

He highlighted the progress made over the past year, noting that inflation has more than halved—from its peak of 34.6% in November 2024 to 16.05% in October 2025—marking seven consecutive months of sustained disinflation.

Food inflation, he added, has eased sharply to 13.12% in October, from 16.87% in September and 21.87% in August, helping to restore purchasing power for households and businesses.

Cardoso attributed the turnaround to the CBN’s decisive return to orthodox monetary policy, improved data analytics, stronger communication, and a complete halt to the monetary financing of fiscal deficits—steps he said have strengthened policy transmission and anchored expectations.

He disclosed that Nigeria’s transition toward a full inflation-targeting framework is gaining momentum, with models projecting continued disinflation in 2026, supported by stronger domestic production, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and disciplined liquidity management.

“As inflation continues to moderate and becomes firmly anchored, we will calibrate policy rates in line with evolving data,” the CBN Governor said, noting that both domestic and international observers have acknowledged Nigeria’s economic rebound.

Reflecting on the state of the economy the administration inherited, Cardoso said inflation was surging, foreign exchange liquidity had dried up, external reserves were effectively depleted, and confidence in economic management had weakened due to unorthodox practices.

“Businesses could not plan or price. Investors could not commit. The foreign exchange market was in paralysis,” he said, citing an FX backlog of over $7 billion and a parallel-market spread that had widened to more than 60%. He stressed that while the banking sector remained fundamentally strong, it was at risk of being pulled into distress by the deteriorating macroeconomic environment.

He emphasized that the progress recorded over the past year—from crisis management to laying foundations for a sustainable recovery—must be measured against the severity of the challenges that preceded it. Economic reforms, he noted, have revived confidence and contributed to a GDP growth of 4.23% in the second quarter of 2025, the strongest in four years.

Looking ahead to 2026, Cardoso outlined key priorities: strengthening the banking system, delivering durable price stability through a robust inflation-targeting framework, modernizing payment systems, and expanding financial inclusion.

“We remain determined to bring inflation down further. Price stability is the foundation for sustainable growth,” he said.

Chairman of the Body of Bank CEOs, Oliver Alawuba, declared that the nation’s economy has finally moved into a period of stability after months of turbulence, signalling what they describe as the beginning of a new phase focused squarely on sustainable, broad-based growth.

He said key monetary and fiscal reforms introduced by the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) were beginning to bear fruit.

According to him, indicators such as the strengthening exchange rate, improved credit ratings, and expanding access to credit show that confidence is steadily returning to the Nigerian economy.

Alawuba recalled the period of extreme volatility, when the naira was severely weakened and investors had little confidence in the currency.

“There was a time when the official rate of the naira was hovering around N1,700. Today it has strengthened to about N1,400,” he said, describing the recovery as evidence of bold and coordinated reforms.

He further noted that global credit-rating agencies were also acknowledging Nigeria’s progress. “Today, Nigeria’s credit rating is improving. The world is taking note,” he said.

According to him, these achievements were made possible by a renewed synergy between monetary and fiscal authorities, a coordination that the Bankers’ Committee believes must continue.

While commending the stability achieved so far, Alawuba stressed that stabilisation is only the first chapter.

“The journey is still ahead,” he warned. “The time for growth is now.”

He revealed that private sector lending currently stands at N74 trillion, but insisted that the banking industry can— and must—do more to stimulate real economic activity.

“Bank credit is not a gift. It is not a grant. It is a trust between the bank and the customer, created for the benefit of the industry and the economy,” he said, emphasizing the need for responsible borrowing, prompt repayment, and stronger risk-management practices.

The Bankers’ Committee highlighted four priority areas that will drive Nigeria’s next growth phase including Youth Financing – Funding innovation, digital enterprise, and the creative energy of Nigeria’s young population.

“We have to be creative and intentional about funding the dreams of our young people, our SMEs, and our hardworking women,” he said.

The Body of Bank CEOs reaffirmed its commitment to working with the Federal Government toward the national ambition of achieving a $1 trillion GDP in the coming years.

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