Beyond defection: Governor Yusuf’s 2027 victory and Kwankwaso’s strategic moves

Like many others, I watched in total amazement the declaration of defection by Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Expectedly, he took time to explain why he decided to move to the APC. This has generated predictable controversy. To some observers, the decision represents a break with his political benefactor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The Kwankwasiyya movement declared the day of the defection – 23rd January – as “Betrayal Day.” To others, the move signals a calculated effort to secure political independence and long-term relevance. Yet, recent experience suggests that defections themselves rarely determine electoral outcomes. The more decisive question is whether Governor Yusuf can manage the strategic challenges that follow the move. His prospects for 2027 will depend less on the defection itself and more on how effectively he handles three key factors: coalition building, performance legitimacy, and relationship management—alongside the critical variable of whether Kwankwaso fields a credible rival candidate. I see the last factor as the most important. Political defections are not uncommon, but they are always dramatic events, especially when they disrupt long-standing mentor–protégé relationships. My amazement was not because it happened. I was amazed because it came too soon. It is doubtful that Yusuf is ready for the strategic challenges to follow.

The first strategic challenge for Governor Yusuf is building a sustainable coalition without being consumed by the current raging factional conflict within the APC. Joining a new political party is often easier than consolidating power within it. The APC in Kano State is beset by rancorous party members and contains multiple entrenched factions with established leadership structures and competing ambitions. Influential figures such as Abdullahi Ganduje and Senator Barau Jibrin command significant political networks, and intra-party competition can be as decisive as inter-party rivalry. It is not uncommon for internal actors to resist the rapid rise of a newcomer, even if that resistance weakens the party’s overall prospects. The initial defection date reportedly had to be postponed to align undecided or noncommittal stakeholders. Looking at the recent history of Kano politics, some power brokers may quietly prefer electoral defeat to the emergence of a dominant figure capable of overshadowing them.

Therefore, Governor Yusuf’s immediate strategic task is coalition integration by building alliances across factions while avoiding alignment with only one bloc. In framing this situation, I find it useful to draw insights from Robert Greene’s book The 48 Laws of Power. Yusuf’s challenge echoes Law 1: Never Outshine the Master and Law 2: Never Put Too Much Trust in Friends. In practical political terms, the lesson is that survival inside a powerful political structure requires balance, tact, and gradual consolidation rather than abrupt dominance. A fractured party could easily undermine even a sitting governor seeking re-election. In an intriguing turn of events, there may be a compelling need for version 2.0 of “Abba Tsaya da Kafar ka”. In many respects, politics is like chess. Grandmaster José Raúl Capablanca put it well: to succeed, “you must study the endgame before everything else”.

The second strategic challenge is performance legitimacy. In war, attack is the best form of defence; in governance, the ultimate defence is performance. Political realignments often generate emotional backlash among loyal supporters, but governance performance can gradually neutralise such reactions. I am writing this from Bakin-Zuwo, near Kurmi Market in Kano. If the long-awaited Wuju-wuju Road that traverses the market is constructed by Governor Yusuf, why should it matter to me whether he is in the NNPP or APC? In the early 1960s, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, famously said that “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice”. This shows a pragmatic view of economic policies or political parties as tools for good.  Voters frequently reassess political decisions through the lens of tangible outcomes. These may include roads constructed, schools improved, healthcare services expanded, employment programmes implemented, and economic opportunities created. When governance delivers measurable improvements, the political narrative often shifts from “betrayal” to “pragmatism.”

This reflects Greene’s Law 9: Win Through Your Actions, Never Through Argument. No amount of political explanation will carry as much weight as visible development achievements. For Governor Yusuf, the months leading to election day represent a narrow but decisive window to translate incumbency into performance legitimacy. If governance results are strong, political defection may become a secondary issue; if performance is weak, the defection narrative will remain a persistent vulnerability. In his speech, Yusuf said he should be judged by “the roads we build, the roads we will build, and the jobs created.” Still, I can see a bumpy journey ahead, simply because his infrastructural projects could easily be framed within the ‘aiki’ and ‘aika-aika’ narrative by the opposition.

The third strategic challenge is the Kwankwaso factor. Perhaps the most decisive uncertainty in the 2027 equation is the political response of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Kano politics remains deeply influenced by personal political movements and loyalty networks, and Kwankwaso retains a substantial grassroots-following. Governor Yusuf’s electoral prospects will depend significantly on whether Kwankwaso fields a new candidate and, if so, the strength, credibility, and acceptability of that candidate among voters.

Therefore, Yusuf’s 2027 victory also depends on relationship management. In his speech, he referred to his tutelage under his mentor. Maintaining respectful engagement with former allies could reduce polarisation and prevent the consolidation of an uncompromising opposition bloc. This aligns with Greene’s Law 19: Know Who You’re Dealing With and Law 29: Plan All the Way to the End. This means Governor Yusuf must recognise that political relationships rarely disappear after formal separation and that strategic moves must anticipate the reactions of powerful actors. A confrontational break could energise opposition forces, while a measured relationship might soften political resistance and divide potential challengers. Has the governor considered how to manage Barau Jibrin—a powerful wounded lion? What will be the governor’s response to any reaction from Abdullahi Ganduje, the father of modern ‘Likimoism’? Borrowing from the esoteric techniques referenced in Mamman Shata’s famous song about the seer, the late Babba na Kofar Gabas of Azare, I can see Ganduje in a less desirable ‘category 3’, if Yusuf wins and in a more desirable ‘category 9’, otherwise. I hope I am wrong.

I don’t envy Governor Yusuf. He finds himself in an intense power contest within a fluid political landscape in Kano State. His situation illustrates a recurring principle of power politics: dramatic political moves attract attention, but the quieter strategic work that follows determines outcomes. Managing party factions, delivering visible governance achievements, and carefully navigating relationships with both new and former allies will shape the electoral battlefield far more than the symbolic act of defection itself. At the same time, the strength of any candidate supported by Kwankwaso (if any) could significantly alter the competitive balance, making the 2027 race highly contingent on evolving political alignments. The destinies of Abba Yusuf and Kwankwaso appear intricately intertwined. Kwankwaso played decisive roles in Yusuf’s successes in 2019 and 2023. For 2027, it seems Kwankwaso’s strategic moves may still determine his victory.

El-Yakubu,  [email protected]

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