Turning gas export gains into domestic prosperity

Since the strike action involving petroleum tanker unions and the Dangote Refinery last year, many Nigerian households have felt the pain where it matters most (the kitchen). The price of cooking gas (Liquefied Petroleum Gas – LPG) has climbed steadily, forcing families to ration usage, with some reverting to firewood or absorbing higher living costs in an already inflation-hit economy. Oddly, this hardship has coincided with a major positive development in Nigeria’s gas sector, with the liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports hitting a five-year high.

In December, Nigeria’s LNG exports surged to 2.1 billion cubic metres, signalling a turnaround for Africa’s largest LNG producer and breathing new life into facilities that had long struggled with feed-gas shortages. For a nation endowed with vast gas reserves, this achievement should be a source of national pride. But it also raises a critical question: how can ordinary Nigerians benefit directly from this export success, especially at a time when domestic gas prices remain high?

“A clear domestic gas obligation regime should be enforced, ensuring that a defined portion of gas production is reserved for local LPG and power generation before export.”

The rebound in LNG exports is largely tied to improved feed-gas availability following the divestment of onshore oil and gas assets by Shell to the indigenous consortium, Renaissance. Years of operational bottlenecks, underinvestment and downtime under previous ownership had constrained production from key fields supplying the Bonny Island liquefaction plant operated by Nigeria LNG Limited, a joint venture involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni.

The change in ownership appears to have unlocked efficiencies. Indigenous operators, closer to the terrain and commercial realities, have prioritised gas optimisation and maintenance, while new commitments from independent producers such as First E&P have strengthened supply. Nigeria’s gas output has reportedly risen from about 1.5 billion cubic feet per day a decade ago to nearly 4.8 BCF today, a notable leap by any standard.

For the Nigerian economy, this resurgence carries enormous promise. LNG exports are a major source of foreign exchange at a time when crude oil output continues to underperform. Sustained export volumes could inject billions of dollars into national reserves, support currency stability and improve fiscal buffers. In a global gas market still reshaped by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a reliable Nigerian supply also enhances the country’s geopolitical and commercial relevance.

Read also: Rising offtake drives Nigeria’s gas export to 15-month high

Yet export success alone is not enough, as the real test lies in translating these gains into tangible domestic benefits, particularly an affordable and stable LPG supply. Nigeria LNG is the country’s largest producer of LPG, and increased liquefaction capacity should, in theory, mean more cooking gas for local consumption. However, market distortions, logistics bottlenecks and pricing inefficiencies often prevent export gains from easing domestic shortages.

This is where policy clarity becomes imperative. Nigeria must deliberately link LNG expansion with domestic gas utilisation. A clear domestic gas obligation regime should be enforced, ensuring that a defined portion of gas production is reserved for local LPG and power generation before export. This does not undermine export revenues; rather, it builds social legitimacy for them. When Nigerians can cook affordably, support for gas sector reforms becomes far stronger.

Also, infrastructure remains the critical missing link. Pipeline vandalism, insecurity in the Niger Delta and weak gas gathering systems still threaten supply reliability. The Trans-Niger Pipeline, feeding Bonny Island, has long been vulnerable to sabotage. Without sustained investment in securing and expanding gas infrastructure, December’s impressive figures could prove short-lived. Export volumes may rise one month and collapse the next, doing little for long-term planning, whether for foreign buyers of Nigerian consumers.

Similarly, the long-delayed Train 7 expansion of Nigeria LNG must be treated as a national priority. The additional 8 million tonnes per annum of capacity would significantly boost export earnings and LPG output. Financing challenges and cost inflation are real, but so is the opportunity cost of delay. Each year of inaction is a year Nigeria forfeits revenue, jobs and domestic gas availability.

There is also a need for better coordination across the energy value chain. The spike in LPG prices following last year’s industrial disruptions showed how fragile downstream logistics can be. Storage, transportation and distribution of cooking gas must be strengthened to prevent shocks from being passed directly to consumers. Export success should not coexist with domestic scarcity.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s LNG resurgence is a rare piece of good news in a challenging economic landscape. It demonstrates what is possible when policy, ownership structure and operational focus align. But exports alone do not cook meals or reduce household expenses. The true measure of success will be whether this gas boom leads to cheaper, cleaner energy for Nigerians, more jobs across the value chain, and a more resilient economy.

Sustaining the current momentum requires discipline, which includes protecting infrastructure, encouraging indigenous operators, completing expansion projects and, above all, placing domestic welfare at the heart of gas policy. If Nigeria gets this balance right, the LNG boom will not just power ships leaving Bonny Island; it will power kitchens, industries and economic hope across the nation.

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