2027: Inside Kwara North’s political permutation, power push

When former Governor Mohammed Sha’aba Lafiagi was forced out of office following the General Sani Abacha-led military takeover of November 17, 1993, few could have imagined that the governorship seat would remain out of reach for his senatorial district more than three decades later.

Sha’aba, a prince from Edu Local Government Area, one of the five councils that make up Kwara North, served as civilian governor under the Social Democratic Party (SDP) during the ill-fated Third Republic. His tenure lasted barely one year and one month before military rule returned.

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Kwara North has failed to produce another governor. To many political observers, this prolonged exclusion reflects deeper structural and political constraints rather than coincidence.

Over the years, analysts have pointed to internal disunity, weak voting coordination, the absence of a coherent regional strategy, and the dominance of stronger political machinery from Kwara Central as factors that have consistently undermined the district’s ambition.

However, recent political developments suggest that Kwara North may be approaching the 2027 contest with a different mindset, driven partly by growing youth mobilisation and elite coordination within the zone.

Unlike previous election cycles marked by fragmentation, the district is witnessing an unusual convergence of interests among politicians, traditional rulers and opinion leaders. Whether this emerging unity will translate into electoral success remains uncertain, but the momentum is increasingly evident.

At the centre of this renewed push is the perception that Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq may be inclined towards producing a successor from Kwara North.

Party insiders say the governor is lending tacit support to a political narrative framed around the slogan “Kwara North Lokan”, which casts the 2027 governorship race as an opportunity for the district to take its turn at the state’s top job.

On the surface, the argument aligns with the principles of equity and fairness that often underpin rotational leadership debates. Beneath that framing, however,

lies a more complex political calculation shaped by party dynamics, elite bargaining and national-level considerations.

Determined to overcome past setbacks, stakeholders from Kwara North appear to be adopting a more coordinated strategy. For the first time in recent political history, the district is speaking with something close to a unified voice.

This shift has been reinforced by a series of summits and engagements, some reportedly supported by the state government, aimed at forging consensus around a single governorship candidate and advancing the call for zoning.

One of the most symbolic of such engagements was a meeting convened by traditional rulers

from the district, officially to address insecurity. At the gathering, monarchs appealed to their counterparts from Kwara South to support the district’s governorship quest.

During the town hall organised by the Kwara North Traditional Rulers Council in Ajase Ipo, Ifelodun Local Government Area, the Etsu Patigi and chairman of the council, Alhaji Umar Bologi II, urged leaders from Kwara South to back the agitation in the interest of equity and inclusion. He noted that since 1999, the governorship had alternated only between Kwara Central and Kwara South.

Monarchs from Kwara South who attended the event reportedly expressed support, a development that has generated mixed reactions across the state.

The Olupo of Ajase Ipo, Oba Ismail Yahya Atoloye Alebiosu, described the gathering as historic, while the Olofa of Offa, Oba Mufutau Muhammed Gbadamosi, said Kwara North was not asking for too much.

About a week later, political aspirants from the district convened another summit to reinforce the same position. The meeting brought together the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Hon Salihu Danladi-Yakubu; Senator Umar Sadiq, representing Kwara North; and Alhaji Tajudeen Audu, the Makama of Lafiagi and a former governorship aspirant. The trio are among the most prominent figures from the zone who have indicated interest in the race.

In contrast to the PDP, the current agitation within Kwara North appears to be coalescing largely around the APC.

Significantly, the aspirants are said to have reached an understanding to close ranks and support whoever eventually secures the APC ticket, an approach observers describe as a deliberate attempt to avoid the internal fractures that undermined previous efforts.

Speaking on behalf of the aspirants, Alhaji Tajudeen Audu said the engagement marked a turning point, describing it as the first-time aspirants, traditional rulers and stakeholders from both Kwara North and South were openly engaging on what he termed the district’s legitimate quest.

Another influential voice, Attahiru Adamu Manko, stressed that the agitation was rooted not in entitlement but fairness. He noted that by the end of Governor

AbdulRazaq’s tenure, Kwara Central would have governed the state for about 20 years, while Kwara South would have had eight.

“We are avoiding the language of marginalisation. We are opting for persuasion, dialogue and political engagement across senatorial districts because we cannot do it alone,” he said.

Previous attempts

The struggle for a Kwara North governor is not new. Past efforts included a political understanding within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) under the leadership of former Senate President Bukola Saraki.

Under that arrangement, the PDP’s 2019 governorship candidate, Razak Atunwa, was expected to serve a single term if elected, with the ticket zoned to Kwara North in 2023. The deal also included concessions such as the positions of Speaker of the House of Assembly and Secretary to the State Government.

However, the PDP suffered a crushing defeat in 2019, losing to the APC. The party also failed to reclaim power in 2023, despite fielding a Kwara North indigene,

Abdullahi Yammah. Critics later argued that his bid lacked the broad-based political backing and elite consensus required to succeed.

The zoning debate resurfaced last September when the PDP elected Adamu Issa Bawa, a former commissioner and senatorial candidate from Kaiama Local Government Area, as its state chairman, following the exit of Babatunde Mohammed, a former Speaker from Kwara South.

Some observers interpreted the development as a strategic recalibration away from the Kwara North Lokan narrative. Party leaders, however, dismissed that assumption.

The PDP spokesperson, Olushola Adewara, told Daily Trust that the agitation was neither organic nor people-driven, describing it as an agenda promoted by politicians unwilling to face competitive primaries.

“We view Kwara State as a single constituency,” he said, adding that the party’s 2027 ticket would be open to aspirants from all districts.

Adewara also argued that the APC’s ticket could be influenced by forces outside the state, warning that imposing a sectional agenda could produce a governor lacking statewide legitimacy.

Responding, the APC’s state chairman, Prince Sunday Fagbemi, said zoning discussions were premature, noting that the governor had not formally indicated any succession preference. He added that party strength and internal processes would determine who emerged.

Despite the equity framing of the agitation, several influential figures from Kwara Central have declared interest in the race, including Senator Saliu Mustapha; the senator representing Kwara Central; the Director-General of the National

Institute for Legislative Studies (NILDS), Prof Abubakar Olanrewaju Suleiman; Engineer Suleiman Bolakale Kawu; and former Speaker Prof Ali Ahmad.

Offering a scholarly perspective, political scientist and National President of the Nigeria Political Science Association (NPSA), Prof Hassan Saliu, said elite endorsements could not substitute for grassroots mobilisation and deep engagement with party structures.

He observed that Kwara North’s relatively smaller voting strength meant its success depended largely on persuading other districts, particularly Kwara Central, to buy into the project.

Professor Saliu also warned that “President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s influence introduces additional variables into the succession equation”, suggesting that national level interests could complicate local calculations.

According to him, while traditional rulers play an important role, governorship contests are ultimately decided through “political processes rather than palace endorsements”.

He also cautioned that Governor AbdulRazaq might not have the latitude to single handedly determine his successor unlike Bukola Saraki, given the internal dynamics of the APC and the influence of national actors.

While questions persist about Kwara North’s voting strength, stakeholders from the district point to the 2023 governorship election, where they claim the zone delivered the highest winning margin for the APC.

Although Kwara Central remains the most populous and electorally dominant district, Kwara North’s collective votes reportedly surpassed those of Kwara South and provided the APC with a decisive margin of about 50,000 votes.

Whether that numerical advantage, combined with growing unity and elite engagement, will be enough to secure the governorship ticket in 2027 remains an open question.

What is clear, however, is that Kwara North’s long standing ambition has entered a more strategic and politically conscious phase, one that will test not only the appeal of equity but the district’s capacity to navigate the hard realities of power politics in Kwara State.

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