2026: HOPES FOR A QUIETER YEAR

Trump will be the fulcrum of a transactional world. Yes, again! writes

RAJENDRA ANEJA

The world hopes for a quiet 2026, even if it is dreary. A year without wars and tariff ambushes, when the morning headlines are not traumatic.

However, hopes can be mirages. Principally, most countries will follow every word and action of Trump. He provides the cues. Trump will be the fulcrum of a transactional world.

Hopefully Trump’s peace plan will be signed by Ukraine and Russia. If not entirely, then partially. It meets two central principles. First, Ukraine will not join NATO. Second, Ukraine can join the European Union. Agreement on these two points should suffice for a ceasefire. The balance 26 points can be thrashed subsequently. It is time, people in Ukraine live normal lives again, without the fear of bombs or drones raining on them every night. About a million soldiers and civilians have already died in this bloody war, in both countries.

The world may continue in a state of war. Infantry wars have been replaced by terrorism and drone warfare. Social media and AI are the new weapons of combat. Fears of a nuclear confrontation grow, as Putin tests underwater drones with nuclear warheads and America and China resume nuclear tests.

The Israel-Gaza cease-fire will prevail, perhaps substantially on paper. On the ground, mayhem may continue. Minor infractions from either side, will trigger skirmishes. Yes, women will suffer. Children will starve and remain illiterate. More generations will swear vengeance. This has been the story of Palestine for over one hundred years. Heartrending.

Trump can focus on dispersing peace and readying the new East-wing ballroom, since undocumented immigrants no longer see America as a haven. They seek livelihoods, not handcuffs. Underlying fears permeate many democracies, with undeclared emergencies.

European nations will struggle to align their global agendas in 2026. Britain and France are struggling with recurrent leadership changes. Germany is spending more on weapons, than ever in the past. Europe is short of money and arms, to make its voice credible. Right-wing populism will continue to rise. And oppose immigration. Yet, USA and Europe are top destinations, for the ambitious.

China will strengthen its wings. President Xi will play the benevolent godfather of Asia and Africa. He will build emotional bridges with Japan, Korea, etc. He will also build railways and roads across Africa.

The Middle East will unitedly “salaam” Trump with style and pomp. The Arabs are astute businessmen. Qatar will shine. India-Pakistan will continue to scowl. Pakistan will dance to the eulogies of Trump. Sudan and Myanmar will continue to simmer. Aung Suu will stay incarcerated.

In a febrile world, Africa should focus on its own growth. Nigeria is well-placed with its own oil refining capabilities. Angola with its oil and diamond resources should invest in infrastructure. Africa’s poor need rapid uplifting. Spreading education at the school level is critical.

The tariff-tumults will continue. President Trump will use this cane to chastise noncompliant nations.

Global growth will plateau below three percent, due to geo-political uncertainties. Growth in Western countries will hover around 1.5 percent, China and India could glow around five-to-six percent.

In a world engrossed with gun and tariff battles, who will focus on growth or poverty-reduction? The common person is becoming nihilistic, condemned to bleakness.

Inflation of six to 12 percent in costs of essentials like flour and vegetables, will agonise common people. Expenditure on holidays and electronics may decline. Saving money may be difficult. Affordability of basics like food, housing, education, and transport is crucial. Politicians do not understand this. Mamdani did. Now, he is the monarch of New York.

The gap between the affluent and the poor is widening. According to Oxfam, one percent of the world’s rich, control 45 percent of the global wealth. And 44 percent of the population lives below the poverty line of USD 6.85 per day. Poverty in Asia and Africa is dehumanising.

Oil prices will hover around USD 55-58 per barrel. They may even drop lower, due to economic despondency.

Wars and tariffs triggered cataclysm dances in gold prices. Everyone wanted to buy it, from nations to taxi-drivers. Gold prices spiralled to over USD 3,300 per ounce from USD 2,388 in 2024. It could touch over USD 5,000 per ounce in 2026, due to economic uncertainties. It will be an attractive buy, in an ambiguous world. Silver is also buoyant. The stock-market continues to allure. However, watch companies that may stumble due to discontinuities in technology. Or tariffs. Real estate will continue to be a wise investment. The world population is augmenting; but the land is finite.

Globalisation, with unrestricted movement of talent and goods across countries, is ebbing. Unemployment will become a pivotal issue. Many governments survive by disbursing cash and free food to their people. It is time for free medicines also.

Corporations are shovelling billions of dollars in artificial intelligence (AI) research. However, AI could be a fierce double-edged knife. The rich and the mega-corporations could prosper; but the middle classes and the poor could lose livelihoods. AI may squeeze white-collar jobs. It is time to acquire new skills.

Happy Distractions

The FIFA World Cup will distract attention from the wars and inflation. The Winter Olympics and T20 cricket World Cup will delight fans. We will rejoice for some escapist weeks. Fans of Djokovic hope to see the tennis warrior victorious.

China and Dubai are getting ready for air taxis from airports to your homes. Perhaps, driverless. The era of male-Bond movies is fading. Is it time for a girl Bond? Emily Blunt? Scarlett Johansson? Even Taylor Swift? Self-made influencers will be the new stars.

My soulmate Patricia is war weary. She wants to return to Belem in Brazil. Here, the mouth of the mammoth Amazon River is 150 miles wide, as it flows into the Atlantic Ocean. It is around three hundred miles into the ocean, before the waters merge. It is serene. We cannot afford this trip. Let’s see. Normally, Patricia prevails.

Aneja was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School, and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries.” A Management Consultant, he writes from Mumbai, India