Analysts see Guinness resuming dividends in 2026 after 2-year pause

Guinness Nigeria Plc is expected to resume dividend payments next year after the beer maker halted payments in 2023, signalling a recovery for a company that suffered from macroeconomic headwinds, which pushed retained earnings into negative territory.

“With earnings recovering and the operating environment stabilising, we expect retained earnings to return to positive territory in the full year (FY’26), reinstating the company’s capacity to resume dividend payments,” analysts at Lagos-based consultancy CardinalStone said in a note on Tuesday.

Read also: Guinness Nigeria commits to strengthening culture, creativity across Nigeria

“While management has not provided formal guidance, our base case assumes a 50.0 percent payout ratio (vs the 5-year average of 62.8%), reflecting a more cautious posture as the company continues to rebuild its balance sheet.”

Retained earnings is projected to close 2026 at N33.9 billion, supporting an estimated dividend per share (DPS) of N8.7 for the year, the analysts said.

Gunniess had had to endure the steep devaluation of the naira and the sky-high inflation that followed the market reforms of the federal government in 2023, a policy shift that saw the company record huge losses in the past two years due to the company’s exposure to FX.

But the brewer rebounded in the 15 months to September 2025, posting a net income of N26.28 billion, improving profitability metrics as net margin rose to 4.42 percent, Return on Asset (ROA) strengthened to 10.69 percent, and Return on Equity (ROE) expanded significantly to 924.02 percent.

Read also: Guinness Nigeria delivers strong performance ahead of transition to new financial year-end

Guinness reported total revenue of N594.68 billion in its 15-month 2025 financial period, driven by growth in both domestic and export sales, which increased to N585.65 billion and N9.02 billion, respectively, compared to N295.9 billion and N3.56 billion in the full year of 2024.

For the last quarter of 2025, CardinalStone expects gross, EBIT, and net profit margins to grow to 37.5 percent, 17.6 percent, and 10.5 percent, compared to 33.5 percent, 13.6 percent, and 8.9 percent in the prior period last year.

“Our expectations are driven by revenue growth buoyed by festive-induced volume growth, expanded market reach, materially lower sorghum prices (-25.9% YoY), and 10.0% appreciation of the Naira.”

Wasiu Alli is a business and economics journalist with more than two years experience covering macro trends, government policies, corporate earnings and comparative economics analysis. Alli turns raw data into trends that not only tells compelling stories but nudges investors to make valued and informed decisions. An alumnus of Lagos State University and trained at Lagos Business School, he heads the Companies and Markets desk at BusinessDay where he writes and supervises the production of well researched articles on earnings updates, corporate sectoral comparisons, market intelligence as well as interviews with C-suite executives.

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