ASUU deal: The maths does not add up

After 17 years of deadlock since the 2009 FG–ASUU pact, the Federal Government and ASUU formally unveiled the renegotiated framework they had signed this month.

On paper, the deal looks promising. Theoretically, it could end the chronic cycle of strikes that have repeatedly shut down public universities and disrupted academic calendars.

The agreement sets out 10 key points. First is the lecturers’ salary upward review by about 40 per cent. Second, there are new annual allowances for professors and Readers. Third is a clearer framework for Earned Academic Allowances across nine academic duties. Fourth covers retirement and pensions, fixing professorial retirement at 70 and pensions at full salary.

The fifth provides for extended maternity leave of six months and limited paternity leave. Sixth confirms continued federal funding of university staff schools. The seventh lists wider conditions of service, including insurance, research leave and injury pensions. Eighth establishes a N30 billion stabilisation and restoration fund spread over three years. Ninth commits the government to sponsoring a National Research Council Bill with research funding tied to GDP. The tenth promises a review of five education laws deemed to constrain autonomy, to be undertaken jointly by ASUU and the FG.

The optimism here is that item 10, the review of education laws, can help achieve 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9, even if they might not all be financially feasible. But this is conditional on ASUU remaining on their toes to facilitate and lobby for the swift passage of the bills. Without a law, these are just promises that will take us back to the 2009 position.

This prediction is based on past events, the current behaviour of the Tinubu administration, and the political process. Still, we can all agree that our knowledge is neither complete nor constant.

But the picture looks bleak once we face the elephant in the room—funding. I say so because these flowery promises cannot be realised with word of mouth only. The deal is meant to take effect from January 1, 2026. However, they are not included in the 2026 budget.

We must worry about the union representatives who signed this pact without considering the feasibility of delivering these promises. These are university academics. Their work rests on data and verifiable evidence.

The point here is the feasibility of funding universities. The easiest promise that should not have been considered on either side is funding the National Research Council with one per cent of Nigeria’s GDP annually. It is not feasible, given the state of the economy.

It does not require experts to see this flaw, but they will help make the argument sound more authoritative. We all know that if you take the evidence before you and you come up with an answer, that is your answer.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. The 2024 GDP is valued at $250 billion. One per cent of that would be $2.5 billion, about N3 trillion. Given that GDP is expected to grow, N3 trillion can be taken as the figure that ASUU agreed with the FG to fund the National Research Council annually. This is not a popular practice even in advanced economies. Any rational person would doubt the feasibility of this arrangement. Good thing the bill is still in the pipeline.

Presently, budget debates are ongoing, and the agreements have not yet been reflected in any of the budget proposals. As it stands, the Ministry of Education’s budget is N2.4 trillion, covering 268 MDAs. We know the budget proposal was made before the ASUU deal was reached, but it needs to be revised as the payments take effect from January 1.

From the broader perspective, Nigeria’s N58 trillion 2026 budget will require N23.85 trillion in borrowing, N15.52 trillion in debt servicing, and N34.3 trillion in revenue. However, we must not forget that the projected N40 trillion in revenue for 2025 was not realised. In fact, the debate is still ongoing, with the finance minister claiming only N10 trillion was realised.

We must also remember that GDP is not revenue. For context, general government revenue in 2024 was 13.5 per cent of GDP. This means the need to borrow money to cover government expenditure will only increase after this agreement. And this will go on and on. The cumulative fiscal effect of these promises will only be seen in years to come.

Similarly, the pay rise and pensions of lecturers will have to be borrowed, given that the country does not have enough revenue to fund the three budgets running simultaneously. The proposed 2026 budget in the Ministry of Education will need a review. Personnel costs were set at N1.68 trillion, overhead at N127.79 billion, and the capital project at N591.58 billion. These need to change to account for new salaries and pension rates in the budget.

The government may consider reducing capital expenditure, lecturers may have to be sacked, or we may see borrowing rise above N23.85 trillion. But we will only begin to debate this if the 2026 budget is passed with staff salary and pension proposals included. Otherwise, the salaries will take several months to reach them, or they may even be deferred into the 2027 budget.

We must feel sorry for the university staff for having to accept this agreement so desperately, as we do not know their conditions. If we excuse the fact that the academics are not public-finance experts, how can we excuse the government for accepting such an agreement? A political answer comes to mind.

It is common knowledge that ASUU target its protest in time for elections to hold the government hostage. The administrators of the Tinubu administration realised this and quickly agreed to these infeasible terms only to avoid strikes during elections. It may sound successful for Tinubu’s strategy for the 2027 elections, but not for ASUU and the Nigerian education sector. ASUU will push to see the agreements realised, but once they see bad intent, they will return with their strikes, as we have seen before, even before the 2009 agreement.

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