How NNPC’s Anti-theft Consolidation is Securing Nigeria’s Oil Future

Ahmed Bature

For years, crude oil theft represented one of the most corrosive threats to Nigeria’s economy—draining revenue, discouraging investment and undermining the credibility of the country’s energy sector. By the time Bayo Ojulari assumed office as Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited in April 2025, the worst of the crisis had begun to ease, thanks to the industry-wide interventions and policy shifts already in motion. Yet the challenge before him was no less daunting: how to consolidate fragile gains and ensure that progress against oil theft did not unravel under new leadership.

Eight months on, the evidence suggests that Ojulari has approached this task with the same stabilising philosophy that has defined his early tenure. Rather than dismantling existing security frameworks, his administration has reinforced them—tightening coordination, improving accountability and embedding crude protection into NNPC’s broader commercial strategy.

The result has been one of the most striking developments of 2025: the restoration of near-100 per cent availability across Nigeria’s major crude oil pipelines, a milestone that would have seemed improbable just a few years ago.

From Crisis to Control

At the height of crude theft in mid-2022, some of Nigeria’s most critical pipelines were barely operational. Terminal recovery factors plunged close to zero, exports were disrupted and investors grew wary of onshore and shallow-water assets. Billions of dollars were lost annually, not only through theft itself but through deferred production and reputational damage.

By the time Ojulari took office, a combination of security interventions, community engagement and private-sector collaboration had begun to reverse the trend. What was required next was consistency—ensuring that the progress was institutionalised rather than dependent on ad hoc measures or personalities.

Ojulari’s leadership has been marked by that consistency. Under his watch, NNPC Ltd announced full availability of key export pipelines, including the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP), Trans Forcados Pipeline (TFP), Trans Escravos Pipeline (TEP) and Trans Ramos Pipeline (TRP). These arteries connect Nigeria’s oil fields to international markets, making their reliability central to national revenue.

Industry analysts describe the achievement not as a sudden breakthrough, but as the outcome of sustained coordination—one that Ojulari has carefully preserved.

Security as a Commercial

Imperative

One of the most significant shifts under Ojulari has been the framing of crude security as a commercial issue rather than a purely law-enforcement challenge. In internal briefings and public statements, NNPC has increasingly linked pipeline availability directly to profitability, investor confidence and energy security.

This perspective aligns with the company’s transformation under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which mandates NNPC Ltd to operate as a commercial entity. Under this framework, every barrel lost to theft represents not just a national loss, but a direct hit to corporate performance.

By embedding security outcomes into operational metrics, Ojulari has reinforced accountability across subsidiaries and partner operators. Pipeline protection is no longer treated as an external obligation, but as a core business function tied to revenue protection.

Collaboration over

Confrontation

Ojulari’s oft-stated belief in partnership has been particularly evident in the anti-theft space. Rather than relying solely on force, NNPC’s strategy has continued to emphasise collaboration with security agencies, private security contractors and host communities.

This multi-layered approach has proven effective in addressing the root causes of vandalism and illegal tapping. Community surveillance initiatives, combined with technology-enabled monitoring and rapid response mechanisms, have helped deter large-scale theft while improving early detection.

Crucially, Ojulari has maintained alignment with government institutions, ensuring that NNPC’s efforts complement national security objectives. This coordination has reduced duplication, improved intelligence sharing and reinforced the legitimacy of interventions.

Observers note that this continuity has been essential. Frequent leadership changes in the past often disrupted relationships and stalled progress. Under Ojulari, those relationships have been preserved and strengthened.

Upstream Confidence Returns

The impact of improved pipeline security has extended beyond theft reduction to broader upstream performance. With export routes stabilised, producers have been able to plan more confidently, unlock shut-in volumes and commit capital to asset optimisation.

NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL), the company’s flagship upstream subsidiary, recorded production levels as high as 355,000 barrels per day within the last year—a reflection of improved asset integrity and reduced evacuation risk. Joint Venture (JV) and Production Sharing Contract (PSC) partners have also responded positively, renewing commitments and accelerating investment decisions.

For Ojulari, this renewed confidence is a critical dividend of security consolidation. By ensuring that barrels produced can reliably reach the market, NNPC has strengthened Nigeria’s case as a viable investment destination in an increasingly competitive global energy landscape.

Revenue Protection and

National Impact

Beyond corporate metrics, the reduction in crude theft carries profound national implications. Oil remains a major source of foreign exchange and fiscal revenue for Nigeria, and improved pipeline availability directly translates into stronger inflows to the federation.

NNPC Ltd’s improved remittances to government in early 2025—amounting to trillions of naira—reflect not just high oil prices or accounting reforms, but the physical reality of more barrels being delivered and sold. In this sense, Ojulari’s consolidation of anti-theft measures has contributed to macroeconomic stability at a time of fiscal pressure.

Energy security, too, has benefited. Reliable crude supply supports domestic refining, export obligations and strategic planning, reducing Nigeria’s vulnerability to supply shocks.

Technology and the Next Phase

While much progress has been made, Ojulari has been careful not to declare victory. NNPC officials continue to describe crude theft as an evolving threat that requires constant adaptation.

Under Ojulari’s leadership, there has been growing emphasis on technology—real-time monitoring, data analytics and automated detection systems—to complement human surveillance. These tools are designed to improve response times, reduce blind spots and lower long-term security costs.

By integrating technology into pipeline protection, NNPC aims to move from reactive enforcement to proactive prevention, further institutionalising gains.

Building on Inherited

Foundations

It is important to note that many of the frameworks underpinning today’s success were established before Ojulari’s appointment. His contribution has been to preserve momentum, close coordination gaps and align anti-theft efforts with NNPC’s commercial transformation.

In doing so, he has avoided the temptation to rebrand inherited initiatives, choosing instead to let results speak for themselves. This approach has earned quiet respect within the industry, where continuity is often more valued than reinvention.

A Fragile but Promising

Equilibrium

As Nigeria’s oil sector continues to recover from years of disruption, the progress against crude theft remains both encouraging and fragile. Sustaining it will require vigilance, investment and continued collaboration.

Eight months into his tenure, Bayo Ojulari has demonstrated an understanding of this reality. By treating pipeline security as a cornerstone of diversification and profitability—not a standalone campaign—he has helped anchor NNPC Ltd’s growth trajectory.

In an industry where setbacks can be swift and costly, the ability to hold the line may prove just as important as the ability to advance it.

•Bature writes from Abuja