Telcos face spectrum shortfall as 6G nears

File photo: 6G network

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Telecom operators around the world could face severe capacity constraints in the next decade unless governments take early decisions to expand access to mid-band spectrum ahead of 6G, the GSMA said on Thursday.

In a new report titled Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity, the industry body said next-generation 6G networks will require up to three times more mid-band spectrum than is typically available today to support soaring demand for data, AI-driven services and advanced digital applications.

The study, compiled by GSMA Intelligence and the GSMA’s global spectrum team, estimates that countries will require an average of 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum in the 2035–2040 period to meet capacity needs in the most densely populated urban areas. Higher-demand markets could require 2.5–4 GHz, it said.

The findings arrive as governments prepare for negotiations ahead of WRC-27, the next major global treaty conference on future mobile bands hosted by the International Telecommunication Union. The GSMA warned that without early planning, countries risk slower mobile speeds, rising congestion and lost economic opportunities throughout the 2030s.

“This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today,” said John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA. “Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions and help economies grow.”

The report projects that commercial 6G deployments will begin in 2030, with early rollouts expected in China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe, India, Vietnam and the Gulf states. By 2040, the GSMA forecasts more than five billion 6G connections, accounting for roughly half of all mobile links globally.

Mobile traffic is expected to surge to as much as 3,900 exabytes per month by 2040, driven by AI-powered services, augmented reality and immersive applications woven into everyday life. While operators are expected to increase network efficiency using technologies such as AI-RAN and denser site deployments, the GSMA said this will not be enough to keep pace with demand without additional spectrum.

The report argues that long-term, harmonised spectrum planning is essential to keep 6G services affordable and widely available. It warned that delays in policy decisions could leave consumers with poorer connectivity and businesses struggling to adopt next-generation digital tools.

As of October 2025, Nigeria’s active mobile subscriptions rose to roughly 175 million, with teledensity climbing to about 80.9 per cent, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission.

Furthermore, broadband access has seen steady improvement, nearing a 50 per cent penetration rate with 106.97 million recorded connections as of September 2025. While 4G technology is widespread, 5G adoption remains limited.

In terms of market developments, some service providers are optimising their resources; for example, MTN Nigeria disclosed its intention to lease spectrum from T2 Mobile (formerly 9Mobile) in October 2025.

These statistics clearly demonstrate the rapidly escalating demand for data across Nigeria. However, this growth highlights a critical concern for the telecommunications infrastructure. The convergence of population increases, intense urbanisation in major centres like Lagos and Abuja, and the accelerating need for high-speed internet means Nigeria may soon hit network capacity limits, a challenge that will only worsen with the expected demands of the 6G era.

Justice has over three years experience spanning digital and print media. At The PUNCH, he currently covers the automobile sector with special interest in features and industry analysis.

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