Was the security situation at a breaking point?

Verily so, we might as well admit. This was my contemplation, while I was in flight on a short trip out of the country, two weeks ago. The country was undergoing intense turmoil. Attacks have intensified, by both the Boko Haram insurgents in the northeast and the bandits operating in the northwest and the north central. The bandits have even abducted children from school for ransom and ostensibly to attract the attention of international media. To worsen matters for us, the US President, Donald Trump, is threatening to attack the country for what he perceives as a genocide perpetrated on the Christian population.

These are vastly worrying times for the country. I raised the same concern four weeks ago on this page in a piece titled: ‘Are We Witnessing a Resurgent Boko Haram?’ That was when the Boko Haram insurgents were making clearly coordinated forays on military barracks in many parts of the northeast, causing mayhem, killing our soldiers and carting away valuable military hardware. One never contemplated that it would escalate to this level. However, the worry for me must be minuscule compared to what must be going on in the mind of President Bola Tinubu. One can, therefore, understand his decision to cancel his trip to Angola and South Africa to focus on the troublesome security situation.

But how did we descend to this level? Just a few months earlier, the security situation seemed to have improved from what President Muhammadu Buhari left behind. Borno was quiet, if one discounted the occasional attacks here and there. Kaduna State had also gone silent. This was, lately, a cauldron of perennial communal clashes in the southern parts and bandits’ takeover of the northern parts of the state, particularly Birnin Gwari, which has become a no-go area due to the intensity of kidnapping activities.

A non-kinetic solution to the crisis, promoted by the governor and supported by the National Security Adviser (NSA), appeared to be yielding results in Kaduna State. Other neighbouring states with similar problems, particularly Katsina, adopted the same strategy with varying degrees of success. Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Niger states remain volatile. Benue, Taraba, Nassarawa and Plateau states also had occasional communal clashes. The southern parts of the country had remained peaceful. Even the IPOB-troubled southeast seemed subdued.

The government must have been thumping its chest over the seemingly peaceful conditions in the country, which allowed it to focus on the 2027 election. The focus was mainly on the opposition parties, in particular the PDP and the Labour Party, to destabilise them and make it well-nigh impossible for them to be a credible opposition to the APC, the government party. The government seemed to have succeeded, gauging by the number of state governors, national assembly members, and other high-level officeholders from opposition parties it has attracted. The ceremonies to receive the decampees were still underway when things started to go awry for the government.

The Trump threat was the first shot, and then the Boko Haram attacks intensified while the bandits in the northwest went even a notch up by mass kidnapping of students from their hostels. The killing of Brigadier Musa Uba by ISWAP insurgents was the most shocking of all. Brigadier Uba, Commander of 25 Task Force Brigade, Damboa, was ambushed, captured and gruesomely executed. The terrorists would later widely circulate the video of the dastardly murder of Brigadier Uba. The president immediately cancelled his proposed trips abroad. But this would all be ‘ihu bayan hari’, roughly equivalent to shutting the stable door after the horses have bolted.

It was too late for the dead, but it offered some reprieve for the kidnapped. The president remained in office to closely supervise his defence chiefs, and clearly, there was a difference in performance. Many kidnapped students were retrieved from captivity, and our gallant army was spurred to action against the terrorists and the bandits. If the president had taken such control earlier, our security situation would not have reached the breaking point we were at so recently.

Re: The North Early Graduates

I read your article of Monday, November 24, 2025, and felt that I should make some corrections. It is Hajia Rekiya Scoth and not Regina Scoth. When I joined the Foreign Service in 1975, after graduating from ABU in 1974 and NYSC 1974/75, I got close to her. Her brother, Amb. Abdullahi Ibrahim Atta, who passed away recently, was my boss in the External Intelligence. However, he wasn’t the head of the External Intelligence, as you wrote. The first was Amb. Babs Ayodele, followed by Amb. Mohammadu Aminu Sanusi (father of the Emir of Kano), Amb. Mahmud Zailani, Amb. Mohammed Lawal Rafindadi, who recruited me and then Amb. Abdullahi Ibrahim Atta. Muhammed Lameen Metteden followed him before the creation of the present NIA. Before then, it was known as the Research Department.

Amb. Suleiman Dahiru, OFR.

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