THE YEAR OF POLITICS AND ECONOMIC CONSOLIDATION?

Even with all its significance, nothing decisive can be said about the new year, argues JOSHUA J. OMOJUWA

Just as 2025 was in its final hours, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi made the only move that seemed available to him; officially join the ADC. He spent months playing in its orbit so the official announcement seemed a formality. The Labour Party were scathing in their position on his move. That came as no surprise because the man and the party had been at loggerheads all year. It was a battle of attrition that was always going to leave each side less of the other. With Atiku Abubakar and now Obi in the same party, we could have a re-run of their 2019 ticket. 2026 will be the year of politicking, but for the sake of the Nigerian masses, it is the year that President Tinubu’s economic reforms must start to show some form of consolidation that’d take the gains from the board rooms to the streets of Nigeria.

More than any other year under this administration’s present term, everything it does and announces will be seen through the filter of the next election. Whilst we are talking about 2027, there are strong indications and machinations to have the elections at the end of this year, 2026. We shall see about that. The APC has widened its base without a single mention of a coalition, primarily through defections and keeping the house largely intact. Even its worst enemies must admit it is a party in its strongest position since 2015. The once massive PDP is in its worst ever state. It may not be a challenger in 2027, except something unusual happens. That is not unlikely.

Announcements about big deals in power and the oil sector, like we saw with Geregu deal on one side and the Heirs Energies and Afrexim Bank deal, not to mention a number of other related deals, will suggest whatever is at play in the privacy of board whispers are likely to come to the fore this year. Those are on the side of economic consolidation. The politics and the governance must interplay.

The new roads, the prospects of increased power supply, education, and social programmes are bound to be read for electoral subtext. The stock market, I believe, will further expand this year. These are the sort of gains everyday Nigerians crave and must see this year. We must accept that all of that will often get so mixed with politics they could be inseparable at times. Can this year become a year of economic consolidation, where reforms are felt in homes and shops rather than just in corporate Nigeria?

Stability begins with money and markets. We enjoyed a semblance of stability last year. It must be the norm in 2026. The foreign exchange framework should stay predictable for importers, exporters, and investors to plan for the year. Our steadier currency is essential for planning and employment. We’d do well to stay consistent on this front.

The Tax reform has remained a controversy but the government has gone ahead with its implemetation. It is a crucial part of the reforms and they must find a way to ensure all the issues around the misaligment between what was passed by the National Assembly and what was signed by the president all get resolved. The truth is, even without this, there are many who do want these tax reforms to happen. Tax reforms is never without a bloody fight, in every country.

Power remains the stubborn obstacle and the most realistic breakthrough. Generation capacity exists on paper, yet transmission and distribution remain short. The year demands practical steps, targeted grid investments, industrial feeders that actually work, and fast scale for commercial mini grids that power clusters. Every additional hour of reliable electricity lowers costs, supports factories and shops, lengthens service hours, and rewards households.

Logistics and ports are the arteries of commerce. If 2026 is to count as consolidation, port clearance times must fall and trucking must become safer. Rail freight should carry more bulk movement of grains, fuel, and building materials. A true single window for documentation, predictable fees, and working scanners will shave days from each shipment. Dry ports in the interior can bring customs closer to producers and ease pressure on coastal terminals, lowering costs for exporters and importers.

The opposition also carries responsibility. If the ADC wishes to look like a government in waiting, it must publish a simple economic brief that voters can check. Who are the shadow ministers? What is the plan for power, inflation, for jobs? How will coordination with states be achieved in a federation where capacity varies? Will they return the fuel subsidy? Will the forex arbitrage return? This must go beyond washing dirty toilets on a British Airways flight. Nigerian voters know what they want and will not be deceived by sob and sad stories.

The diaspora remains an underused force for investments, jobs and skills. Clear rules for remittance investment vehicles, credible diaspora bonds, and simple processes for professional licensure can attract capital and talent. Partnerships between Nigerian institutions and global firms should target apprenticeships, remote services, and supplier development. In a year of politics, these quiet bridges can add thousands of jobs without ceremonies and can widen opportunity for graduates and artisans. There has been a lot of bridges being built with the Nigerian diaspora as the Abike Dabiri-led diaspora agency has done since the President Buhari administration. We now need more layers of engagement.

The year is expected to hold both politics and progress, but the latter is not guaranteed. The parties will debate, align, and rally. But the government must focus on execution. The Nigerian economy must consolidate this year. Next year, another term of office will close for several governors and the president. Between those looking to return and those who will be completing a second term, it is essential to lead our governments to a place in 2027 where we can be confident that Nigeria will be stepping into the next decade stronger and with a lot more optimism for its prospects.

Omojuwa is chief strategist, Alpha Reach/BGX Publishing