The last seven governors still resisting APC’s political gravity

As defections quietly redraw Nigeria’s political map, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) now exerts control over roughly 29 states. What remains is a narrow band of governors choosing, for now, to stay outside federal power. Their reasons vary, strategy, ideology, performance, and political survival—but each is navigating a shrinking space for opposition politics.

As chair of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Bala Mohammed has become the most visible symbol of resistance. That visibility comes at a cost. Federal investigations into his administration have heightened political pressure, reinforcing the perception among allies that opposition now attracts scrutiny as much as it does dissent. Yet Mohammed’s staying power lies in his role as a rallying figure for what remains of organised opposition at the state level.

Why he hasn’t defected: Leaving would collapse the last credible opposition bloc among governors and weaken his own political leverage.

Makinde’s strength is local, not federal. Infrastructure spending, education reforms and healthcare investments have translated into electoral credibility that cuts across party lines. In Oyo, sources say defection would dilute rather than strengthen his brand, turning political capital into liability.

Why he hasn’t defected: Performance has made federal alignment unnecessary, and potentially counterproductive.

Lawal’s 2023 victory disrupted APC dominance in a state shaped by insecurity and elite distrust. Analysts argue that crossing over now would be interpreted as a reversal of that rupture—proof that “change” was temporary.

Why he hasn’t defected: Defection risks alienating the very voters who saw his win as a rejection of old power structures.

In a politically sensitive state, Fintiri has opted for balance. His administration has focused on agriculture and education while maintaining fragile alliances across divides. A sudden realignment, aides say, could destabilise a state where political equilibrium matters more than partisan symbolism.

Why he hasn’t defected: Stability, not alignment, is his governing currency.

Otti’s shield is delivery. Clearing salary backlogs, restoring fiscal order and reviving investor confidence have broadened his appeal beyond Labour Party loyalists. That governance record has reduced the urgency of seeking federal protection ahead of 2027.

Why he hasn’t defected: Credibility, not party switching, has strengthened his negotiating position.

Despite months of speculation, Adeleke has stayed outside the APC, even after resigning from the PDP following internal disputes. His survival has relied on grassroots popularity, visible projects and entrenched local networks in a state the APC failed to reclaim electorally.

Why he hasn’t defected: Local structures and populist appeal have so far outweighed federal pressure.

Soludo has drawn a careful line between alignment and absorption. While publicly endorsing elements of federal economic policy, he remains in APGA, framing the party as an expression of regional political identity rather than opposition for its own sake.

Why he hasn’t defected: APGA offers autonomy without isolation, and cooperation without formal surrender.

Public opinion is split. Critics argue that many of these governors are “APC-aligned in spirit,” pointing to past cooperation with President Tinubu. Opposition figures counter that scrutiny, investigations and political pressure have become tools to force conformity.

What is clear is that opposition at the state level now demands more than ideology. It requires performance, grassroots legitimacy and a careful calculation of when defection protects power and when it destroys credibility.

Obidike Okafor is an award winning, seasoned journalist and content consultant. Obidike has left his mark on the global stage, writing for prestigious publications in Nigeria, the UK, South Africa, Kenya, Germany, and Senegal. He also has experience as an editor, research analyst and podcaster.

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