[2025] Tinubu’s Tax Reforms, Dangote/Marketers Row: Nigeria’s Economy In Retrospect

Year 2025 has been an interesting one for Nigerians.

It stands as a year that existing economic happenings will dovetail into 2026, reshaping Nigeria’s economic landscape for decades to come.

This is because, in addition to the policies already running- majorly subsidy removal, which had led to the rise of Premium Motor Spirit to above ₦1000 per litre at some point, before dropping to above ₦800 per litre, depending on the area- many of the tax reforms already enacted by President Bola Tinubu will begin to take full effect from 2026.

During the year, rising petrol prices led to an escalating cost of living, with prices of goods and services, including transportation, hitting the roof.

From intense debates on tax reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration, to the crisis between the Dangote Refinery and oil marketers over petrol prices, products importation, 4, 000 CNG buses, and the workers unionism, the sacking of former NNPC Limited’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, and the appointment of Bashir Ojulari as replacement, controversies around Nigeria’s refineries, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary policies, and other major events – surely, interesting times lies ahead for Nigeria’s economy in 2026.

Several major tax reform policies were enacted in 2025.

The comprehensive legislation overhauled Nigeria’s tax system, affecting individuals, small businesses, and large corporations.

Signed into law on June 26, 2025, by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s reforms include four landmark acts:

The crisis between Dangote Refinery and oil marketers stemmed from the refinery’s goal to disrupt the traditional fuel import model and establish a dominant market position, which threatened the existing downstream operators.

Dangote had accused marketers of manipulating unions and associations like NUPENG to frustrate his operations by opposing his price reductions and delivery plans.

The marketers, including DAPPMAN, PETROAN, and NARTO, feared existential threats due to the potential loss of their businesses, job losses, and the potential for idle depots if the refinery is allowed to control the supply chain end-to-end.

As the crisis deepened, marketers demanded a more collaborative model where they could still operate and receive products. They argued that Dangote’s investment and market dominance made this a significant point of contention.

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A Q3 GDP growth of 3.98%, with the services sector being a key driver of this expansion. Inflation is projected to decrease to approximately 31.81%, while the unemployment rate is currently 4.3% and the youth unemployment rate is 6.5%.

Key drivers of growth include an increase in oil production, investor confidence, and reforms in the oil, tax, and financial sectors.

Sectoral Performance:

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, last Friday said Nigeria’s economy has emerged stronger.

He specifically pointed out that the economy can withstand external shocks today than ever in its history, noting that Nigeria and Ethiopia are leading economic recovery on the African continent.

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Cardoso also said the progress recorded in Nigeria’s banking industry is expected to continue into 2026, as the latest stress test conducted within the subsector showed that the lenders are financially robust.

The CBN governor stated this during his keynote address at the 60th annual dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.

While highlighting the positive impact of the apex bank’s reforms on the country’s financial markets, Cardoso mentioned that the regulator will ensure that it does everything to protect the domestic financial market’s integrity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government and those of other emerging economies to redouble efforts on structural economic reforms to shore up growth.

In its World Economic Outlook for October 2025 report, the Fund also noted that global economy was adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures.

It urged policymakers to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.

“Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt. Central bank independence should be preserved. Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled.”

Nigeria’s economy in 2025 is showing positive momentum, with GDP growth exceeding previous years, driven by the non-oil sector, agriculture, and a recovering oil sector.

As seen in statistics released by the NBS, inflation has begun to decline, and the Naira has shown more stability, though macroeconomic stability needs to fully translate into improved living conditions for the population.

Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in Q3 2025, the NBS said on Monday.

In its latest report, the NBS said the growth rate is higher than the 3.86 per cent recorded in Q3 2024.

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98% (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2025.

“This growth rate is higher than the 3.86% recorded in the third quarter of 2024. During the quarter under review, agriculture grew by 3.79%, an improvement from the 2.55% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024,” the agency said.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s GDP Rises By 3.98% In Q3 — NBS

The government’s economic reforms, such as subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, are central to this performance; however, analysts say challenges like insecurity, debt, and rapid population growth remain significant risks.