Olabayo and the Possibility of a Cataclysm

By Okey Ikechukwu

President Tinubu has declared a State of Emergency on Security. Then what? Yes, what next and what does that boil down to at the end of the day? I hope it will, by some magic, make locals give more intel to the military, paramilitary and security agencies. I also hope that it will translate into greater supply of the right types of arms and ammunition, as well as more drone-driven military interventions, to our fighting forces.

Whether it does any of the above or not, the undeniable fact before us today is that the Nigerian State stands challenged in ways that it has never been challenged before. Every aspect of the decade-old security crisis is expanding in scope, frequency, dimension and audacity. In particular, the sudden spike in kidnapping, abductions and outright murders within the last the last few weeks leaves one wondering whether this is a deliberately organized upsurge, to reinforce what Donal Trump of the United Staes said about Nigeria. Is the government, and Nigeria, being set up to appear generally ungoverned and ungovernable today?

If yes, why? If not, are there other forces at play Here, that are feeding off our misdeeds over the years and inflicting just recompense on all and sundry?

Primate Theophilus Olabayo, head of the Evangelical Church of Yahweh and renowned cleric who has made many correct predictions about Nigeria in the last four decades ominously declared, a few weeks ago: “Nigeria is sitting on a keg of gunpower”.

He asked Nigerians to expect an increase in security problems and criminal acts across the country. He spoke of more hunger, the effects of endemic corruption and how the last three months of this year may take us on a path, or paths, not contemplated by anyone. He warned about the possibility of hunger, unemployment, anger, general hardship, and the accompanying frustration spiraling into chaos. And he urged the government to quickly take steps to avert what he sees as clear and present dangers.

In his exact words, as published in Thisday Newspaper three weeks ago, “… there are powerful people, even within his (Tinubu’s) party, sponsoring instability ahead of 2027. The president must act quickly because between now and January, Nigeria is sitting on a keg of gunpowder. If we are not careful, hunger and anger will destroy this country”.

He spoke of religious killing, pointing out that everyone is now affected; both Christians and Muslims. “It’s more of a general insecurity problem”, he said. Continuing, he added: “Armed robbers and other criminal elements have worsened the situation. Nigeria is in a hopeless condition”.

Continuing still, Olabayo said: “The President himself must lead by example… If we don’t, there will be unrest, even war, between the rich and the poor. Our lawmakers, too, must make sacrifices. But instead, they are flaunting wealth; building mansions, buying cars, and acquiring property at home and abroad. It will get to a point where people will sell their children just to survive. Poverty is only beginning”.

He added: “We must be our brothers’ keepers and be honest with ourselves. Corruption must end, and we must fear God. Some of the people behind these atrocities are within the security system, using it to enrich themselves. There must be total cleansing”. Then he concluded, as reported in the aforementioned newspaper: “Our leaders must sacrifice for the good of the nation. They know those behind terrorism and killings; they should arrest them and cleanse the system. If they take bold action, Nigeria will rise again”.

And I add; He who has ears to hear…

If we take the security issues outside the domain of Primate Olabayo’s telling, and almost self-fulfilling, pronouncement, we can see that the unbelievable rise in security and related challenges today demand desperate and honest measures. So, I ask, is there anything new to be said to Mr. President about solutions that he has not been told, perhaps several times, before?

In an article which appeared on this page on 20th January, 2024, titled, “Mr. President, Arm Your People”. That was two years ago.

The article began thus: “Our people say that a father who allows his son to enter the village square for a wrestling contest and then enforces a family rule of not grappling with anyone in public has guaranteed the defeat of his son, even before the latter’s opponent is known. That appears to be the position of the average Nigerian today. Thus, except the Federal Government urgently reviews the existing policy on arms possession in Nigeria, the nation’s growing reputation as a mass killing field will become its marker, and identity trademark”.

The article spoke of how Miyetti Allah set up a Nomadic Vigilante Group in Nasarawa State, a spitting distance of the Presidential Villa. The reason for setting up the organization was “to help improve national security”. The article asked: “If reason and common sense are not being stood on their heads here, why should Miyetti Allah’s expression of “shared commitment to economic prosperity, job creation, and the fight against banditry and cattle rustling” not start in Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Borno and Bauchi states”.

Pointing out that these states had the highest negative security indices, extremely high poverty ratings and every other thing that diminishes life in Nigeria today, the article had this to say: “If, as stated by the initiators of the vigilante programme, part of the reasons for setting up the group is to “help flush out the bad elements among them in the state”, the question WHY NASARAWA STATE? Still remains.

Today, insurgency, kidnapping and banditry are on the increase, despite the best efforts of the nation’s security agencies. And the question is: Should President Tinubu not ask himself why adult Nigerians of both genders, whose character and means of livelihood can be vouched for, should not carry arms and ammunition for self-protection?

The ban on certain categories of firearms came at a point in our political experience. That historical hour, which is far behind us now, led to new rules that limited interested citizens to either a single or double barrel, cartridge powered, long snout rifle. This species of guns has limited firepower and cumbersome loading protocols. The possessor is at a clear disadvantage in the face of any real danger that requires prompt response.

As pointed out in the referenced article, “…before this development, the Mossberg Shotgun, including the short barrel option, were available under government license. So was the .22 Gevam Sporting rifle, a lovely French product. …there are citizens – sometimes of questionable origins – who freely and openly wield banned military assault rifles within the same country where such hardware is banned. They flaunt it everywhere, ostensibly to protect their cattle from cattle thieves”.

Then the article asked: “Should all other trades group also arm themselves against whatever dangers threaten their members and their goods? Would that be the way to go and still remain a viable 21st century nation? In the same country where banned military assault rifles are impudently wielded by teenagers in defense of the cattle they are rearing for some members of the elite, a pastor who was caught on social media brandishing the same military assault rifle is on trial for illegal arms possession.

As was said on this page on July 17, 2019, “The strength of the criminals all over the country today, some of them Fulani from outside Nigeria, actually comes from the fact that they are unchallenged for now. When the government of Ghana took concrete and firm steps to contain their excesses, it became obvious that they had no capacity to do anything.

But that is because the Ghanaian State took its own survival seriously. The Fulanis, and Myetti Allah, did nothing when Sule Lamido, as governor of Jigawa State, forbade open wandering of cattle in his state. They also did nothing when Lamido authorized every citizen of Jigawa State to kill and barbecue any cattle found roaming in the city. No one heard their whimper about this “Lamido’s free gift to the people of Jigawa State,” as it was then called. And Lamido is Fulani, and of the right breed if you like”.

Miyetti Allah has not been particularly helpful in building bridges. This organization for cattle herders and related trades, and its Nomadic Fulani Villante Movement, some years ago, actually stepped forward and offered to provide security services in Imo State, far from the real domains of insecurity in Nigeria. Then there is Sheik Gumi and several other advocates of a romance with bandits and banditry whose are street roaming the land and making bold statements.

Recall that the Myetti Allah group in Nasarawa was formally launched, with uniforms and all. We ask: Who approved and funded everything connected with this vigilante group? Can any other association do the same, “in support of national security”? Are the personnel now on full time job, for which they are paid regular salaries? What is their background, and what will you do with them in the next one, two, five, or ten years? Who assessed them, and on what basis were they recruited? Etc. etc.

There is no reason why any other association should not, following this precedent, set up is own vigilante group, “to help secure the livelihoods of farmers and herders, and aid sharing of information and intelligence with security agencies”, or that of fish seller, vehicle spare parts dealers, or Adire makers in Nigeria.

Drugs, poverty and rapacious daredevilry have chased northern big men to Abuja. Now, Abuja itself is no longer safe. High-profile estates and exclusive neighborhoods in Abuja are being quietly attacked and overrun.

The problems are now too real, too close to the skin and seem too well choreographed to be happenstance. Budgets are being run but local economies are collapsing, re-desertification it taking over many places the North East Development commission is supposed to be rescuing and the proceeds of crime are now the new means of livelihood for the unlettered.

That is why the peace of mind of those who had the chance to make a difference but failed to do so is now shattered. That is why the Federal Government must urgently review national policy on arms possession in Nigeria. That is why the president must look into the need to arm his people, in addition to other steps being taken to address the nation’s security challenges; lest Primate Olabayo have cause to say later: “If only our people had listened…”