Opportunity emerges as portfolio realignment, others push stocks to 5-year low

The Nigerian stock market experienced its largest monthly loss in five years in November, as uncertainty surrounding the Capital Gains Tax (CGT), year-end portfolio rebalancing, and expectations of window-dressing by institutional players weighed heavily on equities.

However, the month-long bearish period holds potential opportunities for new entrants into the market, as “it is often a good time to position at a lower entry cost,” according to Samuel Oyekanmi, research and insights lead at Abuja-based Norrenberger.

“With normalisation already happening and a better clarity around the CGT, the market could pick up towards the end of the year and in Q1 2026 as investors start to position for dividend payments, which looks to be impressive on the back of good returns so far.”

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index fell 6.88 percent month-on-month to settle at 143,520.53 points, marking the steepest monthly percentage decline since October 2022, when the market lost about 11 percent.

This is as market capitalization declined by N6.54 trillion to N91.29 trillion as a bearish run persisted in the reviewed month. The market’s year-to-date return, however, moderated to 39.4 percent after nearing about 50 percent.

Read also: FG plans CGT reduction to 25% in 2026—Taiwo Oyedele

Market activity also weakened significantly. Total traded volume declined by 64.88 percent to 1.83 billion units (MoM).

Total value traded also decreased by 55.64 percent to N20.03 billion, with ACCESSCORP leading the volume charts (103.3 million units), also topping the value board (N2.17 billion).

On November 11, the market suffered its steepest single-day decline in 15 years as panic-driven sell-offs wiped an estimated N4.64 trillion off the NGX, a big blow to a market eyeing a record N100 trillion in valuation.

Analysts said the steep decline was majorly driven by the lack of clarity around the CGT, which is expected to kick in next year.

The tax law, which seeks to triple gains realised from the disposal or sale of shares or other equity instruments from 10 percent has become a topic of heated debate.

But authorities said plans are underway to review the policy in a move to deepen market participation and boost investor confidence.

Read also: Nigeria likely to review Capital Gains Tax, Edun says

“There’s a plan to reduce that (CGT) to 25 percent, which means eventually it will be taxed at 25% for the exit. And this rule applies to everyone. So there is no distinction between your foreign investor or your local investor,” Taiwo Oyedele, the chairman of the presidential fiscal and tax policy reforms, said at an event recently.

While liquidity remains robust, analysts emphasize that aligning fiscal policy with investor expectations is critical to sustaining confidence and deepening long-term market participation.

The market pared 310.20 (-0.22%) points to close on Monday at 143,210.33, representing a 1-week loss of 0.28 percent and a 4-week loss of 6.85 percent, according to data from the African Exchange.

Wasiu Alli is a business and economics journalist with more than two years experience covering macro trends, government policies, corporate earnings and comparative economics analysis. Alli turns raw data into trends that not only tells compelling stories but nudges investors to make valued and informed decisions. An alumnus of Lagos State University and trained at Lagos Business School, he heads the Companies and Markets desk at BusinessDay where he writes and supervises the production of well researched articles on earnings updates, corporate sectoral comparisons, market intelligence as well as interviews with C-suite executives.

Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date